Thu, Feb 25, 2021·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Calgary Flames 1, Ottawa Senators 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 05 | 110 | 015 | 130 |
| OTT | 213 | 210 | 28 | 631 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:45OTTDrake BathersonAssists: Tim Stützle, Artem Anisimov · Snap, 0.25 xG0–1
- P1 9:27OTTErik GudbransonGWGAssists: Chris Tierney · Snap, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 1:41CGYMilan LucicAssists: Dillon Dube, Chris Tanev · Snap, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 4:39OTTConnor BrownUnassisted · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–3
- P2 7:24OTTErik BrannstromUnassisted · Slap, 0.00 xG1–4
- P3 4:55OTTColin WhiteAssists: Nick Paul, Thomas Chabot · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–5
- P3 14:46OTTColin WhiteAssists: Thomas Chabot · Snap, 0.19 xG1–6
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Norris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Lindholm – Monahan5:50
xG 0.61–0.16 (79%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Mangiapane – Tkachuk11:15
xG 0.18–0.12 (59%)attempts 16–4goals 0–0
- Backlund – Nordstrom – Robinson2:28
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Lucic – Bennett – Dube2:24
xG 0.04–0.03 (61%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNesterov – Välimäki17:32
xG 0.50–0.41 (54%)attempts 18–16goals 0–0
- Tanev – Hanifin19:49
xG 0.56–0.68 (46%)attempts 20–16goals 1–2
- Giordano – Andersson19:03
xG 0.69–0.99 (41%)attempts 22–21goals 0–4
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Norris – Tkachuk14:10
xG 0.67–0.06 (91%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Dadonov – Paul – White10:51
xG 0.55–0.46 (54%)attempts 13–9goals 3–1
- Anisimov – Batherson – Stützle12:57
xG 0.45–0.39 (54%)attempts 10–20goals 1–0
- Watson – Peca – Tierney11:07
xG 0.19–0.20 (49%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Zub18:58
xG 0.93–0.45 (67%)attempts 16–25goals 2–1
- Chabot – Zaitsev21:06
xG 0.65–0.62 (51%)attempts 20–22goals 0–0
- Gudbranson – Brannstrom12:22
xG 0.26–0.64 (29%)attempts 11–9goals 3–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).