Thu, Feb 25, 2021·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Montréal Canadiens 3, Winnipeg Jets 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 28 | 17 | 06 | 321 |
| WPG | 08 | 311 | 311 | 630 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:45MTLJoel ArmiaAssists: Alexander Romanov, Paul Byron · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 17:29MTLJoel ArmiaAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Jeff Petry · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 5:37WPGKyle ConnorPPAssists: Blake Wheeler, Mark Scheifele · Slap, 0.54 xG2–1
- P2 7:33MTLTomas TatarPPAssists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Jeff Petry · Tip-in, 0.16 xG3–1
- P2 11:50WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Paul Stastny, Nikolaj Ehlers · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
- P2 14:31WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Neal Pionk, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–3
- P3 6:37WPGNate ThompsonGWGAssists: Mason Appleton, Adam Lowry · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–4
- P3 12:37WPGPierre-Luc DuboisAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Andrew Copp · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–5
- P3 18:22WPGMark ScheifeleENAssists: Blake Wheeler, Andrew Copp · Wrist, 0.72 xG3–6
Penalties (8)
- P2 4:55MTLShea Weber: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 6:15WPGNeal Pionk: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:00MTLJeff Petry: Charging2 min
- P3 4:12MTLBen Chiarot: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:29WPGBlake Wheeler: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:24MTLJoel Edmundson: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:26WPGNikolaj Ehlers: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:26MTLCorey Perry: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Gallagher – Danault8:52
xG 0.71–0.24 (75%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Armia – Drouin – Suzuki7:50
xG 0.43–0.08 (85%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Byron – Armia – Lehkonen2:59
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Tatar – Gallagher – Kotkaniemi2:36
xG 0.01–0.09 (11%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulak – Romanov10:22
xG 0.58–0.14 (81%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Edmundson – Kulak2:06
xG 0.13–0.06 (67%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Petry – Edmundson13:19
xG 0.67–0.83 (45%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLowry – Copp – Appleton10:58
xG 0.85–0.34 (71%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Stastny – Ehlers – Connor10:37
xG 0.47–0.46 (50%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
- Thompson – Lewis – Perreault5:57
xG 0.02–0.22 (10%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Dubois12:13
xG 0.23–0.53 (30%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Niku11:54
xG 0.65–0.39 (62%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Beaulieu – Morrissey15:59
xG 0.73–0.95 (43%)attempts 13–15goals 2–1
- Forbort – Pionk16:12
xG 0.22–0.72 (23%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).