Fri, Feb 26, 2021·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Colorado Avalanche 3, Arizona Coyotes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 011 | 19 | 29 | 329 |
| ARI | 06 | 04 | 28 | 218 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:43COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Nazem Kadri, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–0
- P3 6:04COLAndre BurakovskyAssists: Nazem Kadri, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–0
- P3 11:00COLNazem KadriGWGAssists: Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–0
- P3 18:24ARIPhil KesselAssists: Christian Dvorak, Jakob Chychrun · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–1
- P3 19:07ARIDrake CaggiulaAssists: Conor Garland, Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.31 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:53ARIJakob Chychrun: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:44COLCale Makar: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:08ARIDerick Brassard: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:24COLGabriel Landeskog: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:24ARIConor Garland: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:43ARINick Schmaltz: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:26COLBowen Byram: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:14ARIDrake Caggiula: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:14COLBowen Byram: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larsson won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen7:16
xG 0.74–0.22 (77%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Kadri – Landeskog – Rantanen5:03
xG 0.39–0.14 (73%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Nichushkin – Bellemare – Jost4:38
xG 0.33–0.13 (72%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Donskoi – Burakovsky – MacKinnon2:14
xG 0.11–0.05 (70%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGraves – Makar6:58
xG 0.75–0.13 (86%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Toews – Girard9:49
xG 0.61–0.20 (76%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Makar – Byram4:46
xG 0.41–0.20 (68%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestChaput – Fischer – Caggiula7:21
xG 0.34–0.26 (57%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Brassard – Schmaltz – Keller8:47
xG 0.26–0.48 (35%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Larsson – Pitlick – Crouse11:24
xG 0.22–0.62 (26%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Kessel – Dvorak – Garland10:17
xG 0.25–0.74 (25%)attempts 6–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Ekman-Larsson – Lyubushkin14:21
xG 0.26–0.33 (44%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Hjalmarsson – Oesterle11:38
xG 0.39–0.70 (36%)attempts 4–17goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Chychrun16:12
xG 0.55–1.18 (32%)attempts 18–18goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).