Sat, Feb 27, 2021·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Calgary Flames 6, Ottawa Senators 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 320 | 313 | 05 | 638 |
| OTT | 110 | 110 | 114 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:00CGYJuuso VälimäkiAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Mark Giordano · Snap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 4:37CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Andrew Mangiapane, Matthew Tkachuk · Snap, 0.10 xG2–0
- P1 11:05CGYElias LindholmUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–0
- P1 13:05OTTDrake BathersonPPAssists: Thomas Chabot, Tim Stützle · Snap, 0.05 xG3–1
- P2 4:02CGYSean MonahanPPGWGAssists: Johnny Gaudreau · Snap, 0.17 xG4–1
- P2 9:36CGYAndrew MangiapaneSHAssists: Mikael Backlund · Tip-in, 0.23 xG5–1
- P2 10:16OTTColin WhitePPAssists: Nick Paul · Wrist, 0.08 xG5–2
- P2 16:19CGYMatthew TkachukAssists: Mikael Backlund, Rasmus Andersson · Deflected, 0.09 xG6–2
- P3 10:00OTTBrady TkachukPPAssists: Drake Batherson, Thomas Chabot · Wrist, 0.10 xG6–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 4:38OTTAustin Watson: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:38CGYMilan Lucic: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:03OTTThomas Chabot: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 12:26CGYNoah Hanifin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 3:49OTTNikita Zaitsev: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 8:24CGYSam Bennett: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 11:06OTTBrady Tkachuk: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:00OTTColin White: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:39CGYChris Tanev: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:50CGYNikita Nesterov: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 11:35CGYElias Lindholm: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:13CGYJuuso Välimäki: Holding2 min
- P3 19:34OTTBrady Tkachuk: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Mangiapane – Tkachuk13:31
xG 0.73–0.56 (57%)attempts 20–14goals 2–0
- Gaudreau – Monahan – Tkachuk2:13
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Monahan9:41
xG 0.30–0.37 (44%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Lucic – Bennett – Dube10:49
xG 0.28–0.43 (40%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNesterov – Välimäki13:08
xG 0.66–0.43 (61%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
- Giordano – Andersson11:57
xG 0.69–0.58 (54%)attempts 23–10goals 2–0
- Tanev – Hanifin14:30
xG 0.31–0.40 (44%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestAnisimov – Batherson – Stützle8:31
xG 0.52–0.10 (84%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Brown – Norris – Tkachuk8:48
xG 0.46–0.30 (60%)attempts 10–8goals 0–2
- Norris – Batherson – Tkachuk2:52
xG 0.07–0.03 (66%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Watson – Peca – Tierney5:27
xG 0.25–0.27 (48%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Zaitsev17:15
xG 0.84–0.74 (53%)attempts 18–23goals 0–3
- Gudbranson – Brannstrom10:44
xG 0.26–0.31 (46%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
- Reilly – Zub12:30
xG 0.32–0.61 (35%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).