Sun, Feb 28, 2021·United Center, Chicago
Detroit Red Wings 2, Chicago Blackhawks 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 121 | 010 | 115 | 246 |
| CHI | 212 | 010 | 510 | 732 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:41CHINikita ZadorovAssists: David Kampf · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 17:13CHIRyan CarpenterAssists: Ian Mitchell, Matthew Highmore · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–2
- P1 17:51DETSam GagnerAssists: Jon Merrill, Vladislav Namestnikov · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 1:32CHIPius SuterGWGAssists: Patrick Kane, Alex DeBrincat · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 7:06CHIRyan CarpenterPPAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Adam Boqvist · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–4
- P3 9:10CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Alex DeBrincat · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–5
- P3 12:11DETEvgeny SvechnikovPPAssists: Filip Hronek, Adam Erne · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–5
- P3 14:14CHIDominik KubalikAssists: Brandon Hagel · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–6
- P3 15:23CHIAlex DeBrincatAssists: Calvin de Haan, Patrick Kane · Snap, 0.05 xG2–7
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:48DETChristian Djoos: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 6:48CHILucas Wallmark: Delaying game bench face off violation2 min
- P2 7:17DETAlex Biega: Holding2 min
- P2 7:17CHICarl Soderberg: Interference2 min
- P3 6:35DETBobby Ryan: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 10:13CHIDavid Kampf: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Glendening won the faceoff against Kampf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestGagner – Namestnikov – Zadina13:03
xG 0.85–0.29 (74%)attempts 19–8goals 1–0
- Helm – Glendening – Erne10:47
xG 0.68–0.61 (52%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Nielsen – Svechnikov – Brome9:15
xG 0.39–0.57 (41%)attempts 8–8goals 0–2
- Filppula – Ryan – Mantha10:13
xG 0.22–0.41 (35%)attempts 12–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestDeKeyser – Hronek11:34
xG 0.66–0.29 (70%)attempts 16–8goals 0–1
- Staal – Djoos2:17
xG 0.54–0.28 (66%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Staal – Merrill12:57
xG 0.40–0.24 (63%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKane – DeBrincat – Suter15:27
xG 0.76–0.63 (55%)attempts 15–18goals 3–0
- Kubalik – Hagel – Kampf11:13
xG 0.41–0.37 (53%)attempts 8–12goals 2–0
- Carpenter – Wallmark – Highmore7:38
xG 0.21–0.25 (45%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Soderberg – Janmark – Kurashev10:06
xG 0.27–0.43 (39%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMurphy – Zadorov15:58
xG 0.77–0.38 (67%)attempts 18–17goals 3–1
- de Haan – Murphy2:18
xG 0.14–0.11 (57%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- de Haan – Boqvist16:37
xG 0.75–0.91 (45%)attempts 13–17goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).