Sun, Feb 28, 2021·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Columbus Blue Jackets 1, Nashville Predators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 17 | 011 | 011 | 129 |
| NSH | 111 | 112 | 16 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:45CBJKevin StenlundAssists: Riley Nash, Seth Jones · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 7:05NSHNick CousinsAssists: Viktor Arvidsson, Ryan Johansen · Deflected, 0.18 xG1–1
- P2 9:44NSHEeli TolvanenPPGWGAssists: Filip Forsberg, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 18:08NSHErik HaulaSHAssists: Roman Josi, Matt Benning · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 15:22NSHFilip Forsberg: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:25CBJDavid Savard: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 17:16NSHMatt Benning: Interference2 min
- P3 16:46NSHRyan Johansen: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:08CBJMax Domi: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:08NSHMatt Benning: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jenner won the faceoff against Haula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestNash – Stenlund – Robinson5:19
xG 0.10–0.04 (70%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Atkinson – Roslovic – Laine13:29
xG 0.60–0.59 (50%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Nash – Domi – Stenlund5:22
xG 0.07–0.10 (43%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Domi – Texier – Bemstrom5:07
xG 0.02–0.24 (6%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Carlsson13:52
xG 0.36–0.23 (61%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Jones – Werenski19:20
xG 0.42–0.73 (37%)attempts 14–16goals 1–0
- Del Zotto – Gavrikov11:46
xG 0.21–0.79 (21%)attempts 7–16goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Cousins – Arvidsson12:04
xG 0.66–0.33 (67%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Granlund – Forsberg – Tolvanen11:26
xG 0.61–0.32 (66%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Duchene – Jarnkrok – Grimaldi9:53
xG 0.27–0.15 (65%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Haula – Sissons – Kunin6:19
xG 0.23–0.24 (49%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Ellis20:12
xG 0.67–0.35 (66%)attempts 15–14goals 0–1
- Ekholm – Fabbro13:29
xG 0.53–0.47 (53%)attempts 19–10goals 1–0
- Josi – Fabbro2:21
xG 0.12–0.10 (55%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).