Tue, Mar 2, 2021·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Vancouver Canucks 2, Winnipeg Jets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 114 | 19 | 010 | 233 |
| WPG | 212 | 115 | 212 | 539 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:19WPGMason AppletonAssists: Adam Lowry, Kyle Connor · Wrist, 0.28 xG0–1
- P1 8:34VANElias PetterssonAssists: Brock Boeser · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 19:57WPGMathieu PerreaultUnassisted · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 5:04WPGKyle ConnorPPGWGAssists: Blake Wheeler, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–3
- P2 19:55VANJ.T. MillerPPAssists: Quinn Hughes, Brock Boeser · Slap, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 9:13WPGPaul StastnyAssists: Blake Wheeler, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–4
- P3 17:50WPGBlake WheelerENAssists: Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor · Wrist, 0.61 xG2–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 10:13WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Holding2 min
- P1 12:05VANTyler Myers: Interference2 min
- P2 4:39VANJordie Benn: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 14:52VANTravis Hamonic: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:01WPGTucker Poolman: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSutter – Roussel – Gaudette2:25
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Miller – Virtanen – Pettersson2:53
xG 0.01–0.00 (75%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Pearson – Horvat – Virtanen5:45
xG 0.11–0.12 (48%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Horvat – Boeser – Hoglander2:37
xG 0.03–0.07 (28%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Schmidt – Hughes2:06
xG 0.07–0.05 (58%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Myers – Hughes2:22
xG 0.20–0.21 (50%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
- Hamonic – Hughes15:34
xG 0.56–0.75 (42%)attempts 17–14goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Stastny – Scheifele11:26
xG 0.92–0.42 (69%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Thompson – Lewis – Perreault7:57
xG 0.54–0.16 (77%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Ehlers – Connor – Dubois11:38
xG 0.48–0.38 (56%)attempts 15–16goals 0–1
- Lowry – Copp – Appleton11:52
xG 0.30–0.30 (50%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Beaulieu12:50
xG 1.12–0.51 (69%)attempts 19–15goals 2–0
- Forbort – Pionk14:58
xG 0.97–0.41 (70%)attempts 20–10goals 1–0
- Poolman – Morrissey16:47
xG 0.58–0.38 (61%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).