Thu, Mar 4, 2021·United Center, Chicago
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Chicago Blackhawks 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 09 | 08 | 212 | 15 | 334 |
| CHI | 011 | 216 | 07 | 03 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:24CHIRyan CarpenterSHAssists: Brandon Hagel, Carl Soderberg · Snap, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 14:04CHIAlex DeBrincatAssists: Patrick Kane, Connor Murphy · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–2
- P3 1:04TBLAnthony CirelliSHAssists: Jan Rutta, Alex Killorn · Tip-in, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 2:55TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Yanni Gourde · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- OT 4:59TBLAlex KillornGWGAssists: Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–2
Penalties (3)
- P1 17:58TBLBlake Coleman: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:54CHIPhilipp Kurashev: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:55TBLAlexander Volkov: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kampf won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Stamkos – Gourde6:52
xG 0.40–0.06 (87%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Palat – Coleman – Point8:01
xG 0.46–0.45 (50%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Maroon – Joseph – Volkov6:03
xG 0.16–0.24 (41%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Johnson – Coleman – Goodrow4:08
xG 0.00–0.22 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hedman – Sergachev4:31
xG 0.18–0.14 (57%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- McDonagh – Foote4:11
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Hedman – Foote2:01
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKubalik – Hagel – Kampf11:50
xG 0.72–0.18 (80%)attempts 19–9goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Janmark – Kurashev11:56
xG 0.57–0.10 (85%)attempts 18–4goals 0–0
- Kane – DeBrincat – Suter15:53
xG 0.78–0.42 (65%)attempts 18–18goals 1–1
- Carpenter – Wallmark – Highmore7:31
xG 0.38–0.43 (47%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Boqvist13:09
xG 0.55–0.10 (84%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- Murphy – Zadorov17:20
xG 1.18–0.74 (62%)attempts 31–17goals 0–0
- Keith – Mitchell15:07
xG 0.52–0.34 (61%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).