Fri, Mar 5, 2021·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Minnesota Wild 5, Arizona Coyotes 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 39 | 19 | 19 | 527 |
| ARI | 06 | 012 | 17 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:27MINMats ZuccarelloAssists: Kirill Kaprizov · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 13:18MINBrad HuntGWGAssists: Jordan Greenway, Marcus Foligno · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–0
- P1 14:27MINNick BjugstadAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–0
- P2 5:08MINJordan GreenwayAssists: Marcus Foligno, Jonas Brodin · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–0
- P3 4:59ARIClayton KellerAssists: Jordan Oesterle, Niklas Hjalmarsson · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–1
- P3 18:46MINKevin FialaUnassisted · Wrist, 0.21 xG5–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:03ARIPhil Kessel: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:38MINIan Cole: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 9:28ARIConor Garland: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:54ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Holding2 min
- P2 15:48MINIan Cole: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:43ARIJohan Larsson: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:00MINJordan Greenway: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Dvorak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestParise – Bjugstad – Fiala9:47
xG 0.76–0.23 (76%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Foligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek10:22
xG 0.28–0.12 (70%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
- Zuccarello – Rask – Kaprizov10:41
xG 0.31–0.26 (54%)attempts 7–12goals 1–1
- Bonino – Rau – Sturm8:23
xG 0.25–0.53 (32%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba14:35
xG 0.81–0.12 (87%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Cole – Hunt12:39
xG 0.55–0.23 (70%)attempts 10–10goals 2–1
- Suter – Spurgeon12:40
xG 0.15–0.66 (19%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestPitlick – Dvorak – Keller10:26
xG 0.74–0.38 (66%)attempts 14–7goals 1–1
- Chaput – Fischer – Crouse9:22
xG 0.24–0.09 (72%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Brassard – Kessel – Larsson3:50
xG 0.07–0.02 (77%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Brassard – Larsson – Caggiula3:52
xG 0.12–0.18 (39%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHjalmarsson – Oesterle7:41
xG 0.93–0.27 (77%)attempts 9–8goals 1–2
- Goligoski – Chychrun15:22
xG 0.17–0.27 (39%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- Hjalmarsson – Lyubushkin3:46
xG 0.06–0.23 (21%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).