Sun, Mar 7, 2021·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
New York Rangers 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 111 | 06 | 07 | 124 |
| PIT | 36 | 09 | 29 | 524 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:18NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Jacob Trouba · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 16:13PITJohn MarinoAssists: Kasperi Kapanen, Evan Rodrigues · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 16:52PITKasperi KapanenGWGAssists: Jared McCann, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P1 17:14PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Brian Dumoulin, Kris Letang · Snap, 0.16 xG1–3
- P3 13:57PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Kasperi Kapanen, Marcus Pettersson · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–4
- P3 16:37PITZachary Aston-ReeseAssists: Teddy Blueger, Brandon Tanev · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 9:15PITSidney Crosby: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:11NYRRyan Lindgren: Interference2 min
- P2 10:01NYRAlexis Lafrenière: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 11:57NYRMika Zibanejad: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestZibanejad – Buchnevich – Lafrenière9:31
xG 0.47–0.36 (57%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Di Giuseppe – Lemieux – Howden7:52
xG 0.12–0.16 (42%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Zibanejad – Buchnevich – Chytil3:41
xG 0.06–0.17 (26%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
- Rooney – Gauthier – Lafrenière2:15
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren17:34
xG 0.88–0.31 (74%)attempts 20–7goals 0–1
- Trouba – Miller16:04
xG 0.46–0.41 (53%)attempts 11–5goals 1–1
- Smith – Hajek14:16
xG 0.02–0.54 (3%)attempts 4–11goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestBlueger – Tanev – Aston-Reese13:02
xG 0.34–0.02 (94%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel15:40
xG 0.64–0.39 (62%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Malkin – Kapanen – McCann5:38
xG 0.15–0.08 (66%)attempts 2–1goals 1–1
- Jankowski – Angello – Rodrigues5:27
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPettersson – Marino16:01
xG 0.53–0.13 (81%)attempts 7–11goals 2–0
- Matheson – Ceci12:29
xG 0.51–0.25 (67%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
- Letang – Dumoulin18:39
xG 0.64–0.45 (59%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).