Sun, Mar 7, 2021·United Center, Chicago
Tampa Bay Lightning 6, Chicago Blackhawks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 07 | 416 | 216 | 639 |
| CHI | 210 | 16 | 09 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:51CHIPhilipp KurashevAssists: Carl Soderberg · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 15:34CHIMattias JanmarkPPAssists: Dominik Kubalik, Patrick Kane · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–2
- P2 3:11CHIPius SuterAssists: Mattias Janmark · Wrist, 0.25 xG0–3
- P2 3:51TBLOndrej PalatPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P2 4:14TBLYanni GourdeAssists: Erik Cernak · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–3
- P2 7:51TBLVictor HedmanPPAssists: Brayden Point, Ondrej Palat · Slap, 0.04 xG3–3
- P2 16:55TBLYanni GourdePPGWGAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Anthony Cirelli · Slap, 0.06 xG4–3
- P3 14:25TBLAlex KillornAssists: Yanni Gourde, Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–3
- P3 17:25TBLPatrick MaroonPPAssists: Yanni Gourde, Mathieu Joseph · Backhand, 0.34 xG6–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 13:50TBLPatrick Maroon: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 1:04TBLCal Foote: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:40CHIBrandon Hagel: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 6:51CHIIan Mitchell: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:27CHIConnor Murphy: Match penatly 10 minutes10 min · PPG
- P2 12:14TBLVictor Hedman: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:08CHIMattias Janmark: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:21TBLBarclay Goodrow: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:41TBLRyan McDonagh: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:57CHIDuncan Keith: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kampf won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Stamkos – Gourde9:09
xG 0.67–0.29 (70%)attempts 14–5goals 2–0
- Palat – Point – Cirelli11:29
xG 0.43–0.07 (86%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Johnson – Coleman – Goodrow8:03
xG 0.31–0.42 (43%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Maroon – Joseph – Volkov5:30
xG 0.26–0.44 (37%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Cernak6:35
xG 0.43–0.01 (97%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Hedman – Sergachev5:34
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Hedman – Borgman2:07
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKane – DeBrincat – Suter9:49
xG 0.39–0.31 (56%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Janmark – Kurashev5:11
xG 0.21–0.31 (41%)attempts 2–8goals 1–1
- Kubalik – Hagel – Kampf7:30
xG 0.02–0.43 (5%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurphy – Zadorov8:20
xG 0.29–0.07 (79%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Carlsson – Boqvist2:37
xG 0.21–0.02 (91%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Zadorov – Carlsson4:55
xG 0.15–0.07 (69%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).