Sun, Mar 7, 2021·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Ottawa Senators 4, Calgary Flames 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 27 | 111 | 03 | 01 | 2 | 422 |
| CGY | 06 | 19 | 216 | 03 | 1 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:48OTTConnor BrownAssists: Thomas Chabot, Brady Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 15:56OTTRyan DzingelAssists: Chris Tierney, Mike Reilly · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–0
- P2 3:41CGYMark GiordanoAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Nikita Nesterov · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 7:09OTTColin WhiteAssists: Nick Paul, Nikita Zaitsev · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–1
- P3 3:27CGYJohnny GaudreauPPAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Andrew Mangiapane · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–2
- P3 12:17CGYNoah HanifinAssists: Dillon Dube, Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. CGY Sean Monahan stopped
- 2. OTT Tim Stützle scored
- 3. CGY Matthew Tkachuk scored
- 4. OTT Josh Norris stopped
- 5. CGY Johnny Gaudreau stopped
- 6. OTT Artem Anisimov stopped
- 7. CGY Andrew Mangiapane stopped
- 8. OTT Drake Batherson scored
Penalties (14)
- P1 1:06OTTErik Brannstrom: Tripping2 min
- P1 5:00OTTRyan Dzingel: Interference2 min
- P1 14:00CGYMikael Backlund: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:14OTTThomas Chabot: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:50CGYBrett Ritchie: Holding2 min
- P2 2:13CGYZac Rinaldo: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:13OTTAustin Watson: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:16OTTThomas Chabot: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 1:57OTTMike Reilly: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 6:01OTTColin White: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:37OTTArtem Zub: Interference2 min
- OT 3:47CGYRasmus Andersson: Tripping2 min
- OT 3:47OTTTim Stützle: Embellishment2 min
- OT 5:00OTTMike Reilly: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against White
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNorris – Batherson – Tkachuk3:23
xG 0.35–0.28 (56%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Paul – White5:51
xG 0.29–0.24 (54%)attempts 5–4goals 1–1
- Anisimov – Watson – Dzingel2:22
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Norris – Batherson – Stützle4:48
xG 0.00–0.19 (2%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Zub11:15
xG 0.84–0.34 (71%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Gudbranson – Chabot3:19
xG 0.09–0.14 (39%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Gudbranson – Brannstrom4:34
xG 0.01–0.07 (8%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Monahan – Ryan4:02
xG 0.31–0.08 (79%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Ritchie – Bennett – Ryan2:09
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Monahan – Bennett4:19
xG 0.18–0.05 (78%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Lucic – Backlund – Mangiapane8:59
xG 0.32–0.31 (50%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Hanifin15:50
xG 0.91–0.28 (76%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
- Nesterov – Välimäki10:45
xG 0.63–0.24 (73%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Giordano – Andersson11:36
xG 0.38–0.69 (36%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).