Mon, Mar 8, 2021·Ball Arena, Denver
Arizona Coyotes 3, Colorado Avalanche 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 24 | 03 | 17 | 314 |
| COL | 09 | 210 | 016 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:54ARIDerick BrassardPPAssists: Clayton Keller, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 15:17ARIJakob ChychrunAssists: Clayton Keller, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–0
- P2 9:31COLValeri NichushkinAssists: Nazem Kadri, Ryan Graves · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 14:52COLAndre BurakovskyPPAssists: Samuel Girard, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 4:06ARIJohan LarssonGWGAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Phil Kessel · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:20COLJacob MacDonald: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 16:32ARINiklas Hjalmarsson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:43ARIDerick Brassard: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:00COLGabriel Landeskog: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:10ARIFrederik Gauthier: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 17:46ARIJason Demers: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rantanen won the faceoff against Schmaltz
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- Pitlick – Dvorak – Keller11:04
xG 0.18–0.23 (44%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Brassard – Kessel – Larsson11:49
xG 0.17–0.33 (34%)attempts 3–10goals 1–0
- Gauthier – Fischer – Caggiula7:09
xG 0.08–0.28 (22%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
- Schmaltz – Crouse – Garland11:34
xG 0.03–0.73 (3%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hjalmarsson – Oesterle12:47
xG 0.24–0.23 (51%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Chychrun17:31
xG 0.35–0.51 (41%)attempts 10–17goals 1–0
- Demers – Ekman-Larsson17:01
xG 0.25–0.84 (23%)attempts 7–15goals 1–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Saad – Burakovsky12:35
xG 0.67–0.40 (63%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Landeskog – Nichushkin – Rantanen12:55
xG 0.43–0.19 (69%)attempts 17–7goals 0–2
- Calvert – Bellemare – O'Connor8:33
xG 0.18–0.03 (88%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Donskoi – Megna – Jost9:09
xG 0.08–0.12 (40%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGraves – Toews4:32
xG 0.50–0.03 (94%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Girard – MacDonald10:27
xG 0.32–0.03 (93%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Toews – Girard8:57
xG 0.39–0.20 (66%)attempts 12–4goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).