Tue, Mar 9, 2021·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Chicago Blackhawks 1, Dallas Stars 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 06 | 111 | 05 | 122 |
| DAL | 213 | 317 | 17 | 637 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:40DALJoel KivirantaAssists: Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson · Snap, 0.33 xG0–1
- P1 15:10DALJamie OleksiakGWGAssists: Jamie Benn, Denis Gurianov · Snap, 0.29 xG0–2
- P2 1:43CHIMattias JanmarkAssists: Lucas Carlsson, Calvin de Haan · Slap, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 7:25DALJohn KlingbergPPAssists: Ty Dellandrea, Radek Faksa · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
- P2 9:55DALJoe PavelskiAssists: Jason Robertson · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–4
- P2 11:25DALEsa LindellAssists: Jason Robertson, Joel Kiviranta · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–5
- P3 6:46DALRoope HintzAssists: Jason Robertson · Slap, 0.22 xG1–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:13CHILucas Carlsson: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:34CHIDominik Kubalik: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 15:15CHIReese Johnson: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:15DALNick Caamano: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:42DALJohn Klingberg: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:34CHIMatthew Highmore: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 2:28DALNick Caamano: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suter won the faceoff against Dickinson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHighmore – Suter – Johnson3:25
xG 0.16–0.01 (94%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- DeBrincat – Hagel – Kurashev3:38
xG 0.11–0.07 (60%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Kane – Kubalik – Kampf6:14
xG 0.08–0.06 (56%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Kubalik – Hagel – Kampf5:05
xG 0.18–0.27 (40%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- de Haan – Carlsson13:36
xG 0.34–0.60 (36%)attempts 7–8goals 1–2
- Keith – Boqvist13:36
xG 0.36–0.92 (28%)attempts 9–18goals 0–2
- Murphy – Zadorov16:29
xG 0.16–1.16 (12%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestHintz – Robertson – Kiviranta9:18
xG 0.85–0.18 (82%)attempts 11–5goals 3–1
- Faksa – Caamano – Dellandrea5:20
xG 0.76–0.15 (84%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Benn – Gurianov8:45
xG 0.49–0.20 (71%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Comeau – Cogliano – Dickinson9:04
xG 0.32–0.09 (78%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Lindell15:24
xG 0.87–0.13 (87%)attempts 21–6goals 2–0
- Sekera – Pysyk12:40
xG 1.29–0.55 (70%)attempts 12–11goals 2–1
- Oleksiak – Heiskanen17:48
xG 0.93–0.31 (75%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).