Thu, Mar 11, 2021·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Chicago Blackhawks 4, Dallas Stars 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 14 | 34 | 08 | 416 |
| DAL | 015 | 07 | 28 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:26CHIDominik KubalikAssists: Brandon Hagel, David Kampf · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 2:53CHICarl SoderbergPPAssists: Adam Boqvist, Patrick Kane · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–0
- P2 14:37CHIDuncan KeithGWGUnassisted · Slap, 0.04 xG3–0
- P2 16:10CHIAlex DeBrincatPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Adam Boqvist · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–0
- P3 9:43DALRoope HintzAssists: Jamie Oleksiak, Andrew Cogliano · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–1
- P3 12:41DALJohn KlingbergAssists: Jake Oettinger · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 7:33CHIDominik Kubalik: Interference2 min
- P1 15:42DALMark Pysyk: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:48CHIDavid Kampf: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:25DALRadek Faksa: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 3:38DALJoel Kiviranta: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:42DALJason Robertson: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:41DALMiro Heiskanen: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 17:10CHILucas Wallmark: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:35CHIDavid Kampf: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:25CHIAdam Boqvist: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hintz won the faceoff against Soderberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestCarpenter – Wallmark – Highmore3:34
xG 0.53–0.12 (81%)attempts 4–1goals 0–1
- Kubalik – Hagel – Kampf6:16
xG 0.22–0.23 (49%)attempts 2–8goals 1–0
- Soderberg – Janmark – Kurashev5:39
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
- Kane – DeBrincat – Suter11:17
xG 0.23–0.53 (30%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestZadorov – Beaudin11:18
xG 0.57–0.28 (67%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Keith – Boqvist9:20
xG 0.38–0.56 (41%)attempts 8–10goals 2–2
- de Haan – Murphy12:08
xG 0.11–0.38 (23%)attempts 4–15goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestComeau – Cogliano – Dickinson3:34
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Benn – Gurianov5:13
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Comeau – Cogliano – Faksa2:37
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
- Hintz – Robertson – Kiviranta6:38
xG 0.22–0.21 (50%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Heiskanen7:57
xG 0.45–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Lindell11:33
xG 0.45–0.38 (54%)attempts 13–7goals 0–2
- Klingberg – Oleksiak4:24
xG 0.12–0.12 (51%)attempts 1–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).