Sat, Mar 13, 2021·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Nashville Predators 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 09 | 17 | 215 | 331 |
| TBL | 211 | 210 | 27 | 628 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:55TBLTyler JohnsonAssists: Erik Cernak, Blake Coleman · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 18:35TBLMathieu JosephAssists: Erik Cernak, Steven Stamkos · Slap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 2:24TBLAlex KillornPPAssists: Ondrej Palat, Victor Hedman · Tip-in, 0.20 xG0–3
- P2 12:02NSHYakov TreninAssists: Viktor Arvidsson · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
- P2 18:48TBLBrayden PointGWGAssists: Mikhail Sergachev · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–4
- P3 3:17NSHAlexandre CarrierAssists: Yakov Trenin, Mathieu Olivier · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–4
- P3 5:03NSHErik HaulaPPAssists: Calle Jarnkrok, Nick Cousins · Wrist, 0.46 xG3–4
- P3 10:02TBLBlake ColemanAssists: Barclay Goodrow, Tyler Johnson · Backhand, 0.07 xG3–5
- P3 18:26TBLAnthony CirelliENAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.52 xG3–6
Penalties (3)
- P2 1:18NSHEeli Tolvanen: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 15:13TBLErik Cernak: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:38TBLTyler Johnson: Boarding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Goodrow
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestHaula – Cousins – Grimaldi12:19
xG 0.61–0.13 (82%)attempts 16–4goals 0–1
- Sissons – Trenin – Olivier10:39
xG 0.41–0.21 (66%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Jarnkrok – Granlund – Tolvanen12:44
xG 0.28–0.28 (51%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson12:15
xG 0.50–0.62 (45%)attempts 8–11goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Carrier17:28
xG 0.85–0.42 (67%)attempts 14–10goals 1–2
- Harpur – Allard16:17
xG 0.55–0.23 (70%)attempts 10–10goals 0–2
- Benning – Davies15:19
xG 0.44–0.55 (44%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Coleman – Goodrow10:32
xG 0.60–0.23 (72%)attempts 12–4goals 2–1
- Killorn – Stamkos – Gourde11:28
xG 0.43–0.26 (63%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Maroon – Stamkos – Joseph2:18
xG 0.04–0.03 (59%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
- Maroon – Joseph – Cirelli2:23
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Hedman3:02
xG 0.15–0.09 (63%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Hedman – Foote6:12
xG 0.09–0.11 (45%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Schenn – Sergachev3:26
xG 0.13–0.15 (46%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).