Sat, Mar 13, 2021·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Montréal Canadiens 1, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 06 | 110 | 09 | 125 |
| CGY | 216 | 112 | 08 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:38CGYSean MonahanAssists: Brett Ritchie · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 13:56CGYSean MonahanPPGWGAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Elias Lindholm · Backhand, 0.24 xG0–2
- P2 7:20CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Andrew Mangiapane, Milan Lucic · Snap, 0.16 xG0–3
- P2 14:20MTLJeff PetryAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Joel Edmundson · Snap, 0.08 xG1–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:19MTLJonathan Drouin: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:08MTLBrendan Gallagher: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 8:33CGYJuuso Välimäki: Interference2 min
- P2 13:26CGYRasmus Andersson: Interference2 min
- P2 13:44MTLBrendan Gallagher: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Kotkaniemi
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Gallagher – Kotkaniemi10:58
xG 0.42–0.28 (60%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Tatar – Armia – Danault5:11
xG 0.28–0.35 (44%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Anderson – Drouin – Suzuki7:27
xG 0.12–0.30 (29%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Perry – Byron – Lehkonen4:36
xG 0.18–0.37 (32%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Weber – Romanov15:48
xG 0.55–0.53 (51%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Petry – Edmundson15:04
xG 0.50–0.66 (43%)attempts 14–14goals 0–2
- Kulak – Mete11:55
xG 0.03–0.68 (4%)attempts 2–18goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestLindholm – Tkachuk – Dube9:52
xG 0.90–0.26 (77%)attempts 19–8goals 0–0
- Leivo – Bennett – Ryan10:53
xG 0.46–0.10 (82%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Lucic – Backlund – Mangiapane11:23
xG 0.41–0.29 (58%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Gaudreau – Ritchie – Monahan10:27
xG 0.10–0.42 (19%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKylington – Välimäki14:08
xG 1.08–0.37 (75%)attempts 19–7goals 1–0
- Tanev – Hanifin15:53
xG 0.48–0.33 (59%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Giordano – Andersson15:17
xG 0.58–0.46 (56%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).