Sun, Mar 14, 2021·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Arizona Coyotes 1, Minnesota Wild 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 16 | 06 | 010 | 122 |
| MIN | 09 | 114 | 312 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:27ARIPhil KesselUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 6:35MINVictor RaskAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Kirill Kaprizov · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–1
- P3 6:03MINNick BoninoGWGAssists: Kevin Fiala, Zach Parise · Snap, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 11:10MINKevin FialaPPAssists: Mathew Dumba, Jonas Brodin · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–3
- P3 19:55MINJoel Eriksson EkENAssists: Zach Parise, Nick Bjugstad · Other, 0.71 xG1–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:05MINKirill Kaprizov: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:20ARITyler Pitlick: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:40MINNick Bonino: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:48ARIJakob Chychrun: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 3:41MINNick Bonino: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:15ARIDryden Hunt: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rask won the faceoff against Brassard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- Brassard – Pitlick – Caggiula8:03
xG 0.39–0.35 (53%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Kessel – Dvorak – Keller2:34
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Kessel – Dvorak – Crouse6:55
xG 0.20–0.31 (39%)attempts 10–5goals 1–1
- Larsson – Hunt – Fischer8:07
xG 0.05–0.17 (24%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Oesterle – Lyubushkin11:09
xG 0.11–0.54 (17%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Demers – Ekman-Larsson13:23
xG 0.31–0.84 (27%)attempts 12–24goals 0–1
- Goligoski – Chychrun14:41
xG 0.42–1.61 (21%)attempts 15–16goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Rask – Kaprizov12:12
xG 1.04–0.16 (87%)attempts 16–3goals 1–0
- Parise – Bjugstad – Eriksson Ek8:42
xG 0.25–0.27 (48%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Hartman – Fiala – Greenway9:58
xG 0.28–0.37 (43%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Bonino – Johnson – Sturm6:14
xG 0.15–0.29 (34%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon16:59
xG 1.79–0.39 (82%)attempts 26–16goals 1–0
- Cole – Soucy11:55
xG 0.67–0.16 (81%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Brodin – Dumba14:37
xG 0.56–0.44 (56%)attempts 16–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).