Mon, Mar 15, 2021·Madison Square Garden, New York
Philadelphia Flyers 5, New York Rangers 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 211 | 17 | 111 | 11 | 530 |
| NYR | 06 | 312 | 15 | 01 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:47PHIJames van RiemsdykAssists: Joel Farabee, Justin Braun · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 5:05PHIIvan ProvorovAssists: Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.00 xG2–0
- P2 8:12NYRArtemi PanarinAssists: Tarmo Reunanen, Ryan Strome · Slap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 10:52NYRColin BlackwellAssists: Artemi Panarin, Brendan Smith · Slap, 0.14 xG2–2
- P2 15:16NYRJulien GauthierAssists: Filip Chytil, Artemi Panarin · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–3
- P2 18:36PHIJoel FarabeePPAssists: Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek · Slap, 0.10 xG3–3
- P3 2:56NYRKevin RooneyAssists: Brendan Lemieux, Brett Howden · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–4
- P3 5:33PHIClaude GirouxPPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Ivan Provorov · Tip-in, 0.12 xG4–4
- OT 3:47PHIJakub VoracekGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.21 xG5–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 8:29NYRJulien Gauthier: Holding2 min
- P1 11:47PHINicolas Aube-Kubel: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:27NYRJulien Gauthier: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:44PHIJakub Voracek: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:44NYRBrendan Smith: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:44PHINolan Patrick: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:53NYRJulien Gauthier: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 11:40PHIMichael Raffl: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:34NYRRyan Strome: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hayes won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Couturier – Farabee12:30
xG 0.51–0.39 (57%)attempts 12–13goals 2–0
- Hayes – Laughton – Konecny9:04
xG 0.29–0.27 (51%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Patrick7:56
xG 0.04–0.11 (27%)attempts 3–4goals 0–2
- Raffl – Aube-Kubel – Lindblom3:07
xG 0.12–0.33 (27%)attempts 2–6goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – Myers14:28
xG 0.68–0.61 (53%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
- Braun – Provorov15:18
xG 0.48–0.41 (54%)attempts 10–13goals 2–0
- Prosser – Gostisbehere10:53
xG 0.02–0.51 (4%)attempts 3–11goals 0–3
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestLemieux – Rooney – Howden7:55
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 1–0
- Gauthier – Chytil – Kakko4:09
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Lafrenière5:22
xG 0.23–0.15 (60%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Blackwell – Strome – Panarin10:36
xG 0.31–0.32 (49%)attempts 8–10goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindgren – Hajek11:40
xG 0.57–0.07 (89%)attempts 12–5goals 2–1
- Trouba – Miller15:09
xG 0.53–0.46 (54%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Smith – Reunanen7:30
xG 0.19–0.15 (57%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).