Mon, Mar 15, 2021·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Boston Bruins 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 120 | 013 | 010 | 143 |
| PIT | 210 | 18 | 18 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:47BOSMatt GrzelcykPPAssists: Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 16:51PITEvan RodriguesAssists: Kasperi Kapanen, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P1 18:34PITSidney CrosbyGWGAssists: Jake Guentzel, Brian Dumoulin · Snap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 11:40PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 19:44PITJake GuentzelENAssists: Bryan Rust, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.72 xG1–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:17PITBryan Rust: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 0:28BOSDavid Pastrnak: Interference2 min
- P2 6:59PITMarcus Pettersson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 10:31BOSConnor Clifton: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 12:13BOSConnor Clifton: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:40PITSidney Crosby: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:12PITTeddy Blueger: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:24BOSJakub Zboril: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak9:40
xG 0.45–0.22 (67%)attempts 17–4goals 0–1
- Kuraly – Frederic – Kuhlman6:30
xG 0.21–0.08 (73%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Krejci – Smith – DeBrusk9:36
xG 0.30–0.20 (60%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Coyle – Ritchie – Kuhlman2:50
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – McAvoy11:36
xG 0.84–0.48 (64%)attempts 21–7goals 0–0
- Kampfer – Tinordi6:44
xG 0.23–0.10 (69%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Kampfer – Zboril5:12
xG 0.13–0.05 (73%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Kapanen – Rodrigues10:36
xG 0.33–0.19 (64%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Sceviour – Jankowski – Angello5:24
xG 0.25–0.11 (69%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel13:12
xG 0.45–0.59 (43%)attempts 14–20goals 1–0
- Blueger – Tanev – Aston-Reese9:08
xG 0.03–0.22 (13%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRuhwedel – Pettersson9:21
xG 0.25–0.14 (64%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Matheson – Ceci13:56
xG 0.32–0.36 (47%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
- Letang – Dumoulin15:45
xG 0.45–0.83 (35%)attempts 14–25goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).