Mon, Mar 15, 2021·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Montréal Canadiens 4, Winnipeg Jets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 16 | 217 | 18 | 431 |
| WPG | 013 | 110 | 113 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:01MTLJesperi KotkaniemiAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Josh Anderson · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–0
- P2 5:33MTLJosh AndersonPPAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Nick Suzuki · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–0
- P2 8:08WPGKyle ConnorPPAssists: Josh Morrissey, Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 19:13MTLTyler ToffoliGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–1
- P3 5:47WPGKyle ConnorPPAssists: Josh Morrissey, Mark Scheifele · Slap, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 19:12MTLTyler ToffoliENAssists: Joel Edmundson · Wrist, 0.71 xG4–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 8:25MTLNick Suzuki: Holding2 min
- P1 19:46WPGPaul Stastny: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:09WPGNeal Pionk: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:25MTLJesperi Kotkaniemi: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 8:38WPGAndrew Copp: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:38MTLXavier Ouellet: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:38WPGMason Appleton: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:38MTLBrendan Gallagher: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:11WPGJosh Morrissey: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P3 4:23MTLJoel Edmundson: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Gallagher – Suzuki10:49
xG 1.08–0.58 (65%)attempts 13–16goals 1–0
- Perry – Byron – Evans5:40
xG 0.07–0.23 (23%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Tatar – Armia – Danault10:33
xG 0.36–0.69 (34%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Anderson – Drouin – Kotkaniemi12:38
xG 0.50–0.91 (35%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Kulak18:14
xG 1.21–0.55 (69%)attempts 19–12goals 1–0
- Ouellet – Romanov12:02
xG 0.31–0.88 (26%)attempts 10–19goals 0–0
- Weber – Edmundson15:18
xG 0.39–1.13 (25%)attempts 11–20goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Stastny – Scheifele14:19
xG 1.51–1.21 (56%)attempts 18–12goals 0–1
- Ehlers – Connor – Dubois11:34
xG 0.51–0.24 (67%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Thompson – Lewis – Perreault6:04
xG 0.34–0.08 (81%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Lowry – Copp – Appleton11:46
xG 0.15–0.80 (16%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPoolman – Stanley12:38
xG 0.71–0.13 (85%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Forbort – Pionk14:38
xG 0.97–0.55 (64%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Forbort – DeMelo2:05
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).