Wed, Mar 17, 2021·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Montréal Canadiens 3, Winnipeg Jets 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 011 | 17 | 217 | 01 | 336 |
| WPG | 211 | 18 | 010 | 11 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:50WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Derek Forbort, Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 15:46WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Nikolaj Ehlers · Slap, 0.27 xG0–2
- P2 1:26MTLPhillip DanaultAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Tomas Tatar · Snap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 13:42WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Josh Morrissey · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–3
- P3 5:58MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Phillip Danault · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–3
- P3 18:35MTLTyler ToffoliAssists: Corey Perry, Jonathan Drouin · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–3
- OT 0:55WPGNikolaj EhlersGWGAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois · Snap, 0.24 xG3–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 5:38MTLCorey Perry: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 8:04WPGAdam Lowry: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:33WPGJosh Morrissey: Holding2 min
- P2 14:35MTLJosh Anderson: Charging2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kotkaniemi won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Toffoli – Suzuki4:22
xG 0.57–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Tatar – Gallagher – Danault4:53
xG 0.36–0.12 (74%)attempts 6–5goals 2–0
- Perry – Byron – Evans3:57
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Anderson – Drouin – Kotkaniemi12:44
xG 0.39–0.37 (51%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Kulak16:19
xG 1.39–0.93 (60%)attempts 22–11goals 1–1
- Weber – Edmundson18:00
xG 0.33–0.36 (47%)attempts 13–10goals 1–1
- Ouellet – Romanov10:12
xG 0.62–0.86 (42%)attempts 17–13goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestEhlers – Connor – Dubois11:29
xG 1.46–0.80 (65%)attempts 17–13goals 2–0
- Thompson – Lewis – Perreault5:59
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 1–9goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Stastny – Scheifele13:16
xG 0.34–0.61 (36%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Lowry – Copp – Appleton11:07
xG 0.30–0.63 (32%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey16:35
xG 1.22–0.59 (67%)attempts 15–19goals 1–0
- Forbort – Pionk17:40
xG 0.72–0.79 (48%)attempts 13–18goals 1–1
- Poolman – Stanley10:58
xG 0.11–0.26 (29%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).