Thu, Mar 18, 2021·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Chicago Blackhawks 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 29 | 07 | 05 | 221 |
| TBL | 210 | 07 | 26 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:10CHIMattias JanmarkPPAssists: Dominik Kubalik, Alex DeBrincat · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 13:15TBLAlex KillornAssists: Victor Hedman, Steven Stamkos · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 17:02TBLYanni GourdePPAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Andrei Vasilevskiy · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–2
- P1 18:45CHIDylan StromePPAssists: Mattias Janmark, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.34 xG2–2
- P3 5:32TBLRoss ColtonGWGAssists: Mathieu Joseph, Patrick Maroon · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–3
- P3 19:44TBLVictor HedmanENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.52 xG2–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:47TBLBarclay Goodrow: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P1 15:38CHILucas Wallmark: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 18:08TBLPatrick Maroon: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 0:35TBLYanni Gourde: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:51CHIPhilipp Kurashev: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:03TBLBarclay Goodrow: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Goodrow won the faceoff against Kampf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestJanmark – Carpenter – Strome7:35
xG 0.48–0.21 (70%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Kubalik – Hagel – Kampf3:09
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Wallmark – Kurashev6:10
xG 0.13–0.17 (43%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Kane – DeBrincat – Suter4:07
xG 0.08–0.14 (38%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurphy – Zadorov4:43
xG 0.38–0.09 (81%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- de Haan – Murphy2:59
xG 0.32–0.23 (58%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- de Haan – Zadorov2:09
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Stamkos – Gourde11:54
xG 0.48–0.30 (61%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Johnson – Coleman – Goodrow9:53
xG 0.38–0.22 (63%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Maroon – Joseph – Colton10:07
xG 0.28–0.30 (49%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Palat – Point – Cirelli12:59
xG 0.39–0.53 (43%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Cernak12:35
xG 0.59–0.20 (75%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Hedman – Sergachev3:42
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Hedman – Rutta12:25
xG 0.47–0.35 (57%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).