Thu, Mar 18, 2021·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Dallas Stars 2, Detroit Red Wings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 014 | 08 | 218 | 240 |
| DET | 14 | 17 | 110 | 321 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:00DETRobby FabbriAssists: Anthony Mantha, Troy Stecher · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 6:36DETRobby FabbriAssists: Marc Staal · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P3 9:05DETRobby FabbriGWGAssists: Dylan Larkin · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–3
- P3 9:30DALRoope HintzAssists: Denis Gurianov, Joel Hanley · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–3
- P3 18:40DALJason DickinsonAssists: Jason Robertson, John Klingberg · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:38DETMarc Staal: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 13:00DALTy Dellandrea: Interference2 min
- P1 13:00DETVladislav Namestnikov: Embellishment2 min
- P2 16:33DETTroy Stecher: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:50DETChristian Djoos: Holding2 min
- P3 12:49DALEsa Lindell: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Faksa won the faceoff against Rasmussen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestHintz – Gurianov – Robertson9:28
xG 0.61–0.16 (79%)attempts 12–2goals 1–0
- Pavelski – Kero – Dellandrea4:45
xG 0.24–0.11 (69%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Pavelski – Radulov – Benn3:44
xG 0.09–0.02 (80%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Radulov – Benn – Dickinson8:06
xG 0.76–0.75 (50%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Lindell13:27
xG 0.74–0.44 (63%)attempts 15–10goals 0–1
- Sekera – Hanley10:03
xG 0.55–0.26 (68%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Klingberg – Heiskanen2:55
xG 0.14–0.02 (86%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestSvechnikov – Rasmussen – Zadina2:26
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Mantha – Larkin – Fabbri11:44
xG 0.79–0.81 (50%)attempts 6–13goals 1–1
- Gagner – Namestnikov – Zadina7:42
xG 0.12–0.15 (45%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Gagner – Svechnikov – Rasmussen2:43
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNemeth – Merrill9:17
xG 0.47–0.26 (64%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- DeKeyser – Hronek10:08
xG 0.84–0.64 (57%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Merrill – Djoos2:48
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).