Thu, Mar 18, 2021·Ball Arena, Denver
Minnesota Wild 1, Colorado Avalanche 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 92% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 06 | 17 | 07 | 120 |
| COL | 225 | 119 | 211 | 555 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:10COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 19:02COLMikko RantanenGWGAssists: Samuel Girard, Nathan MacKinnon · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 8:41MINVictor RaskPPAssists: Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 15:07COLGabriel LandeskogPPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–3
- P3 1:57COLJoonas DonskoiAssists: Jacob MacDonald · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–4
- P3 6:30COLMikko RantanenAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Ryan Graves · Backhand, 0.04 xG1–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:34MINJared Spurgeon: Holding2 min
- P1 16:07COLNazem Kadri: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:17COLJoonas Donskoi: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 10:55COLGabriel Landeskog: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:29MINJordan Greenway: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 13:29MINJordan Greenway: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:29COLBowen Byram: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:19COLNathan MacKinnon: Elbowing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bellemare won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Bonino – Johnson – Sturm6:52
xG 0.17–0.12 (58%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Fiala – Greenway – Eriksson Ek2:58
xG 0.12–0.08 (60%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Parise – Bjugstad – Hartman3:35
xG 0.11–0.39 (21%)attempts 1–7goals 0–1
- Zuccarello – Rask – Kaprizov11:54
xG 0.30–0.74 (29%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Spurgeon3:46
xG 0.22–0.06 (80%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- Spurgeon – Hunt2:29
xG 0.12–0.08 (60%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Cole – Brodin5:20
xG 0.21–0.17 (55%)attempts 6–1goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestCalvert – Bellemare – O'Connor8:58
xG 1.15–0.09 (93%)attempts 16–3goals 0–0
- Kadri – Saad – Burakovsky12:24
xG 0.95–0.34 (74%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
- Donskoi – Nichushkin – Jost9:33
xG 0.43–0.21 (68%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen12:00
xG 0.51–0.28 (64%)attempts 13–6goals 3–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirard – MacDonald6:23
xG 0.97–0.10 (91%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Toews – Makar9:00
xG 0.89–0.15 (86%)attempts 15–3goals 0–0
- Graves – MacDonald5:46
xG 0.45–0.01 (97%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 92% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).