Thu, Mar 18, 2021·Honda Center, Anaheim
Arizona Coyotes 2, Anaheim Ducks 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 24 | 011 | 010 | 00 | 225 |
| ANA | 010 | 210 | 010 | 11 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:13ARIConor GarlandAssists: Nick Schmaltz · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–0
- P1 7:07ARIClayton KellerAssists: Conor Garland · Snap, 0.16 xG2–0
- P2 12:01ANAJamie DrysdaleAssists: Rickard Rakell, Ryan Getzlaf · Snap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 14:30ANATrevor ZegrasAssists: Troy Terry, Jamie Drysdale · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
- OT 0:47ANAAdam HenriquePPGWGAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Rickard Rakell · Slap, 0.16 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:31ANARickard Rakell: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:07ARIMichael Chaput: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:17ANAKevin Shattenkirk: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:17ARILawson Crouse: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:48ANANicolas Deslauriers: Holding2 min
- P3 17:33ANAJakob Silfverberg: Holding2 min
- P3 19:34ARITyler Pitlick: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Dvorak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestSchmaltz – Garland – Keller12:16
xG 0.97–0.20 (83%)attempts 12–11goals 2–0
- Pitlick – Dvorak – Crouse11:42
xG 0.59–0.38 (61%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Brassard – Kessel – Larsson10:16
xG 0.55–0.43 (56%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Chaput – Hayden – Fischer6:25
xG 0.05–0.69 (7%)attempts 1–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Ekman-Larsson14:44
xG 1.04–0.58 (64%)attempts 11–15goals 1–1
- Chychrun – Lyubushkin12:26
xG 0.72–0.43 (63%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
- Hjalmarsson – Oesterle11:27
xG 0.54–0.35 (61%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGrant – Deslauriers – Heinen12:24
xG 0.53–0.23 (70%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Silfverberg – Comtois – Lundeström4:34
xG 0.22–0.15 (60%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Rakell – Comtois7:01
xG 0.32–0.27 (55%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Rakell – Jones6:34
xG 0.36–0.42 (46%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHutton – Drysdale15:25
xG 1.17–0.68 (63%)attempts 23–9goals 2–0
- Shattenkirk – Larsson13:27
xG 0.43–0.67 (39%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Fowler – Hakanpää15:12
xG 0.28–0.84 (25%)attempts 12–12goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).