Sat, Mar 20, 2021·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Carolina Hurricanes 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 010 | 010 | 210 | 01 | 2 | 331 |
| CAR | 010 | 111 | 113 | 03 | 1 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 14:29CARAndrei SvechnikovAssists: Brett Pesce, Jesper Fast · Wrist, 0.30 xG0–1
- P3 0:39CBJOliver BjorkstrandAssists: Kevin Stenlund · Deflected, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 15:47CARWarren FoegeleAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Jordan Martinook · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–2
- P3 19:31CBJSeth JonesAssists: Patrik Laine, Jack Roslovic · Snap, 0.06 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. CAR Dougie Hamilton scored
- 2. CBJ Cam Atkinson stopped
- 3. CAR Martin Necas stopped
- 4. CBJ Max Domi stopped
- 5. CAR Andrei Svechnikov stopped
- 6. CBJ Patrik Laine scored
- 7. CAR Nino Niederreiter stopped
- 8. CBJ Oliver Bjorkstrand scored
Penalties (4)
- P1 3:41CBJDavid Savard: Interference2 min
- P2 11:24CARBrett Pesce: Holding2 min
- P3 6:33CARJordan Martinook: Slashing2 min
- OT 1:44CBJSeth Jones: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Martinook won the faceoff against Jenner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestAtkinson – Domi – Roslovic12:42
xG 0.47–0.26 (64%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Bjorkstrand – Stenlund – Laine3:12
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Foligno – Stenlund – Laine8:19
xG 0.25–0.28 (48%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Matteau – MacInnis – Robinson7:01
xG 0.12–0.34 (25%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Del Zotto – Kukan13:09
xG 0.24–0.45 (35%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Jones – Werenski18:12
xG 0.63–1.09 (37%)attempts 20–23goals 1–1
- Savard – Gavrikov16:03
xG 0.29–0.85 (25%)attempts 9–18goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Fast – Svechnikov11:10
xG 0.91–0.18 (83%)attempts 15–6goals 1–1
- Martinook – McGinn – Foegele9:32
xG 0.50–0.12 (81%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Paquette – Lorentz – Geekie6:14
xG 0.30–0.04 (88%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Aho – Necas15:41
xG 0.49–0.61 (44%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Pesce18:21
xG 1.31–0.55 (70%)attempts 28–14goals 1–0
- Hamilton – Slavin15:23
xG 0.92–0.35 (72%)attempts 20–15goals 1–1
- Fleury – Bean11:48
xG 0.15–0.23 (40%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).