Sat, Mar 20, 2021·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Chicago Blackhawks 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 012 | 014 | 15 | 131 |
| TBL | 17 | 310 | 012 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:21TBLBrayden PointAssists: Alex Killorn, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 1:53TBLAnthony CirelliGWGAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Victor Hedman · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 14:15TBLYanni GourdeAssists: Blake Coleman, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–3
- P2 18:21TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Alex Killorn, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–4
- P3 4:50CHIAlex DeBrincatAssists: Dominik Kubalik, Philipp Kurashev · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:29CHICalvin de Haan: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:07TBLJan Rutta: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:15TBLYanni Gourde: Cross checking2 min
- P2 0:15CHIAlex DeBrincat: Cross checking2 min
- P2 6:09TBLBarclay Goodrow: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:47TBLErik Cernak: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 18:10CHIConnor Murphy: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 19:13TBLPatrick Maroon: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:33CHIReese Johnson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suter won the faceoff against Goodrow
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKubalik – Hagel – Kampf5:08
xG 0.14–0.02 (87%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Kane – DeBrincat – Suter4:48
xG 0.41–0.34 (55%)attempts 11–3goals 0–1
- Soderberg – Strome – Kurashev2:17
xG 0.10–0.10 (49%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Kubalik – Hagel – Suter2:06
xG 0.02–0.03 (38%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZadorov – Mitchell12:41
xG 0.39–0.31 (56%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- de Haan – Boqvist14:06
xG 0.36–0.46 (44%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Keith – Murphy15:26
xG 0.75–1.16 (39%)attempts 12–14goals 1–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Stamkos – Cirelli9:38
xG 0.57–0.15 (80%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Coleman – Goodrow – Gourde5:14
xG 0.48–0.06 (89%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Johnson – Palat – Point3:21
xG 0.01–0.14 (8%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Johnson – Coleman – Goodrow4:35
xG 0.03–0.23 (10%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Rutta9:11
xG 0.92–0.14 (86%)attempts 10–7goals 2–0
- McDonagh – Cernak12:47
xG 0.63–0.28 (69%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Foote2:59
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).