Sat, Mar 20, 2021·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Calgary Flames 0, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 05 | 013 | 013 | 031 |
| TOR | 111 | 113 | 09 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:31TORJason SpezzaGWGAssists: Jake Muzzin · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 16:28TORZach HymanAssists: John Tavares, Alex Galchenyuk · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:11CGYMilan Lucic: Interference2 min
- P2 5:59CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:18TORWayne Simmonds: Charging2 min
- P2 9:08CGYNoah Hanifin: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:09TORWilliam Nylander: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 2:51CGYDerek Ryan: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:56TORAlex Galchenyuk: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestLindholm – Bennett – Tkachuk6:23
xG 0.25–0.12 (67%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Leivo – Bennett – Ryan2:42
xG 0.01–0.02 (32%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Ritchie – Monahan9:39
xG 0.15–0.25 (37%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Lucic – Backlund – Mangiapane9:22
xG 0.08–0.33 (19%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Hanifin15:17
xG 0.62–0.42 (60%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Giordano – Andersson12:32
xG 0.35–0.44 (44%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Nesterov – Välimäki10:42
xG 0.16–0.60 (21%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Spezza – Kerfoot6:20
xG 0.37–0.09 (81%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Hyman – Engvall – Mikheyev6:12
xG 0.38–0.10 (79%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Marner – Matthews8:25
xG 0.24–0.18 (57%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Tavares – Galchenyuk – Nylander7:31
xG 0.10–0.06 (63%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – Rielly11:11
xG 0.47–0.32 (60%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Holl16:35
xG 0.75–0.61 (55%)attempts 23–17goals 1–0
- Bogosian – Brodie2:04
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).