Tue, Mar 30, 2021·Centre Bell, Montreal
Edmonton Oilers 0, Montréal Canadiens 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 07 | 04 | 06 | 017 |
| MTL | 315 | 110 | 07 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:18MTLJesperi KotkaniemiGWGAssists: Paul Byron, Artturi Lehkonen · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 3:23MTLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Paul Byron, Joel Edmundson · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–2
- P1 15:58MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Shea Weber, Phillip Danault · Backhand, 0.32 xG0–3
- P2 17:54MTLTomas TatarAssists: Phillip Danault, Brendan Gallagher · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:18EDMKailer Yamamoto: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P1 4:47MTLJosh Anderson: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:47EDMWilliam Lagesson: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:27EDMKyle Turris: Holding2 min
- P1 17:26EDMConnor McDavid: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:01MTLAlexander Romanov: Interference2 min
- P2 6:55MTLBrendan Gallagher: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:46EDMTyson Barrie: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:09MTLJosh Anderson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Khaira won the faceoff against Kotkaniemi
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestKassian – McDavid – Puljujarvi6:22
xG 0.16–0.06 (75%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl – Yamamoto6:25
xG 0.15–0.10 (61%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Turris – Nugent-Hopkins – Yamamoto3:02
xG 0.01–0.08 (13%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Archibald – Shore – Khaira8:55
xG 0.41–0.53 (44%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRussell – Bear7:05
xG 0.52–0.42 (56%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Russell – Larsson8:40
xG 0.17–0.13 (57%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Nurse – Bear5:27
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Gallagher – Danault8:22
xG 0.92–0.24 (79%)attempts 11–9goals 2–0
- Anderson – Drouin – Suzuki9:31
xG 0.43–0.07 (86%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Byron – Lehkonen – Kotkaniemi8:54
xG 0.57–0.34 (63%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Perry – Frolik – Evans8:27
xG 0.28–0.06 (83%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Edmundson13:19
xG 1.22–0.28 (81%)attempts 17–11goals 3–0
- Petry – Kulak12:31
xG 0.83–0.35 (70%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Mete – Romanov13:22
xG 0.46–0.08 (85%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).