Mon, Mar 22, 2021·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Colorado Avalanche 5, Arizona Coyotes 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 28 | 121 | 26 | 535 |
| ARI | 04 | 09 | 112 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:22COLPierre-Edouard BellemareAssists: Matt Calvert, J.T. Compher · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 15:28COLMikko RantanenGWGAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 11:44COLNazem KadriAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Jacob MacDonald · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–0
- P3 16:19ARIOliver Ekman-LarssonPPAssists: Phil Kessel, Tyler Pitlick · Slap, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 17:28COLJoonas DonskoiENAssists: Tyson Jost, Valeri Nichushkin · Deflected, 0.72 xG4–1
- P3 19:49COLJoonas DonskoiAssists: Tyson Jost, Valeri Nichushkin · Wrist, 0.12 xG5–1
Penalties (5)
- P2 3:46ARIJakob Chychrun: Holding2 min
- P2 16:53ARIJordan Oesterle: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:05COLMatt Calvert: Boarding2 min
- P3 13:03ARINick Schmaltz: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:58COLNazem Kadri: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brassard won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestDonskoi – Nichushkin – Jost10:37
xG 1.06–0.30 (78%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen12:56
xG 0.90–0.45 (67%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Calvert – Compher – Bellemare8:52
xG 0.45–0.04 (92%)attempts 11–3goals 1–0
- Kadri – Saad – Burakovsky11:56
xG 0.45–0.58 (44%)attempts 10–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar14:19
xG 1.26–0.75 (63%)attempts 16–16goals 1–0
- Girard – MacDonald13:58
xG 0.84–0.47 (64%)attempts 18–13goals 2–0
- Graves – Byram12:31
xG 0.65–0.39 (63%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestKessel – Dvorak – Fischer3:05
xG 0.23–0.12 (66%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Brassard – Pitlick – Crouse9:33
xG 0.41–0.32 (56%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Larsson – Fasching – Caggiula2:33
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Schmaltz – Garland – Keller11:56
xG 0.20–0.40 (34%)attempts 13–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestOesterle – Chychrun3:23
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Hjalmarsson – Oesterle8:58
xG 0.09–0.27 (25%)attempts 4–11goals 0–1
- Oesterle – Lyubushkin3:34
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).