Tue, Mar 23, 2021·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Detroit Red Wings 0, Nashville Predators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 08 | 012 | 011 | 031 |
| NSH | 112 | 115 | 07 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:59NSHMikael GranlundPPGWGAssists: Roman Josi, Eeli Tolvanen · Deflected, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 10:41NSHMathieu OlivierAssists: Yakov Trenin, Colton Sissons · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 13:41DETAdam Erne: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 4:56NSHViktor Arvidsson: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:51DETVladislav Namestnikov: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:32NSHMathieu Olivier: Boarding2 min
- P3 15:36DETDylan Larkin: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:36NSHErik Haula: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:15NSHDante Fabbro: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestHelm – Glendening – Erne10:22
xG 0.32–0.25 (56%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Mantha – Larkin – Fabbri11:54
xG 0.19–0.23 (45%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Ryan – Namestnikov – Zadina2:58
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Gagner – Namestnikov – Zadina6:30
xG 0.09–0.53 (15%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCholowski – Hronek3:24
xG 0.31–0.18 (64%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Merrill6:22
xG 0.23–0.15 (61%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Staal – Merrill3:35
xG 0.22–0.22 (50%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJarnkrok – Granlund – Arvidsson11:49
xG 0.74–0.10 (88%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Haula – Cousins – Grimaldi9:43
xG 0.52–0.32 (62%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Olivier8:58
xG 0.36–0.24 (61%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Tolvanen12:08
xG 0.42–0.42 (50%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Fabbro16:43
xG 0.86–0.32 (73%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Carrier16:02
xG 0.53–0.42 (56%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
- Benning – Harpur12:27
xG 0.26–0.53 (33%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).