Tue, Mar 23, 2021·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Dallas Stars 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 09 | 210 | 07 | 226 |
| DAL | 16 | 01 | 010 | 117 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:32DALRoope HintzPPAssists: Jason Robertson, Joe Pavelski · Backhand, 0.19 xG0–1
- P2 8:08TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Ondrej Palat · Slap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 12:44TBLYanni GourdeGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:33TBLErik Cernak: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 4:40DALJamie Oleksiak: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:10DALJamie Benn: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 6:03DALRadek Faksa: Holding2 min
- P3 6:14TBLAlex Killorn: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:55TBLMikhail Sergachev: Interference2 min
- P3 12:26TBLBlake Coleman: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pavelski won the faceoff against Gourde
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Johnson – Cirelli6:49
xG 0.33–0.06 (85%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Coleman – Goodrow – Gourde11:02
xG 0.35–0.12 (74%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Johnson – Palat – Cirelli5:12
xG 0.17–0.00 (97%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Point5:44
xG 0.18–0.01 (93%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFoote – Borgman10:18
xG 0.36–0.17 (68%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Cernak – Sergachev15:17
xG 0.49–0.33 (59%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Hedman – Rutta16:24
xG 0.22–0.31 (42%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestHintz – Gurianov – Robertson9:41
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Comeau – Cogliano – Faksa3:06
xG 0.13–0.01 (90%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Comeau – Cogliano – Dickinson3:14
xG 0.18–0.13 (58%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Benn – Dickinson5:08
xG 0.18–0.14 (55%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Heiskanen15:36
xG 0.30–0.21 (58%)attempts 12–17goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Heiskanen2:46
xG 0.12–0.05 (69%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Oleksiak – Lindell2:21
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).