Wed, Mar 24, 2021·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Buffalo Sabres 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 112 | 06 | 110 | 228 |
| PIT | 221 | 213 | 18 | 542 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:36PITEvan RodriguesAssists: Sam Lafferty, Mark Jankowski · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 15:44PITKris LetangAssists: Sidney Crosby, Bryan Rust · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P1 17:17BUFRasmus DahlinAssists: Brandon Montour, Taylor Hall · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 17:29PITJohn MarinoGWGAssists: Jared McCann, Zachary Aston-Reese · Slap, 0.07 xG1–3
- P2 19:36PITZachary Aston-ReeseSHAssists: Frederick Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–4
- P3 3:57PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Jake Guentzel, Mike Matheson · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–5
- P3 14:35BUFVictor OlofssonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.32 xG2–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 19:34BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Cross checking2 min
- P2 5:41BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Interference2 min
- P2 13:55PITJohn Marino: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:31BUFRasmus Dahlin: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:04PITMark Jankowski: Interference2 min
- P3 2:19BUFJacob Bryson: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:17PITKris Letang: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:35PITMike Matheson: Penalty shot holding on breakaway0 min
- P3 18:30BUFEric Staal: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lazar won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestReinhart – Olofsson – Cozens2:14
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Staal – Hall – Reinhart5:04
xG 0.36–0.23 (61%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Staal – Skinner – Hall3:34
xG 0.08–0.07 (52%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Sheahan – Olofsson – Cozens2:34
xG 0.10–0.13 (42%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Irwin – Miller3:00
xG 0.02–0.05 (27%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Bryson2:52
xG 0.05–0.09 (37%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – Dahlin3:40
xG 0.06–0.11 (37%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestJankowski – Lafferty – Rodrigues8:42
xG 0.62–0.31 (67%)attempts 11–7goals 1–1
- Sceviour – Gaudreau – Angello6:42
xG 0.20–0.07 (75%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel12:44
xG 0.61–0.60 (51%)attempts 18–13goals 1–0
- Kapanen – McCann – Aston-Reese6:37
xG 0.18–0.20 (48%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPettersson – Marino14:58
xG 0.45–0.08 (85%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Letang – Dumoulin15:10
xG 0.93–0.61 (60%)attempts 23–12goals 1–0
- Matheson – Ceci11:29
xG 0.39–0.56 (41%)attempts 10–16goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).