Thu, Mar 25, 2021·TD Garden, Boston
New York Islanders 4, Boston Bruins 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 06 | 112 | 27 | 12 | 427 |
| BOS | 210 | 013 | 19 | 00 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:42BOSKarson KuhlmanAssists: Charlie McAvoy, Anders Bjork · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 17:35BOSSteven KampferPPAssists: Charlie McAvoy, David Krejci · Slap, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 7:21NYIJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Scott Mayfield, Leo Komarov · Snap, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 4:33NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Brock Nelson, Nick Leddy · Snap, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 17:04NYIOliver WahlstromAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Anthony Beauvillier · Deflected, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 17:58BOSAnders BjorkAssists: Charlie Coyle, Chris Wagner · Snap, 0.07 xG3–3
- OT 0:21NYIAnthony BeauvillierGWGAssists: Nick Leddy, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Snap, 0.36 xG4–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 15:37NYICasey Cizikas: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 18:13NYIMichael Dal Colle: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:12NYIScott Mayfield: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 8:00BOSBrad Marchand: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Coyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Nelson – Dal Colle9:53
xG 0.70–0.41 (63%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Pageau – Beauvillier – Wahlstrom9:01
xG 0.19–0.10 (66%)attempts 5–4goals 1–1
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas7:54
xG 0.20–0.30 (40%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Komarov – Eberle – Barzal8:51
xG 0.06–0.18 (24%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock13:22
xG 0.82–0.25 (77%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Greene – Hickey8:38
xG 0.29–0.14 (68%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Hickey – Mayfield2:23
xG 0.00–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestCoyle – Bjork – Kuhlman7:13
xG 0.39–0.12 (76%)attempts 10–3goals 1–1
- Krejci – Smith – Ritchie11:19
xG 0.49–0.23 (68%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Coyle – Pastrnak – Bjork2:03
xG 0.14–0.08 (66%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- McKegg – Wagner – Frederic7:57
xG 0.18–0.32 (36%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – McAvoy15:15
xG 0.37–0.21 (64%)attempts 17–6goals 1–0
- Kampfer – Tinordi13:24
xG 0.48–0.55 (47%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Clifton – Zboril15:50
xG 0.35–0.56 (38%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).