Thu, Mar 25, 2021·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Detroit Red Wings 1, Nashville Predators 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 111 | 05 | 05 | 121 |
| NSH | 413 | 18 | 29 | 730 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:34NSHRocco GrimaldiAssists: Erik Haula, Nick Cousins · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P1 7:23NSHEeli TolvanenPPGWGAssists: Roman Josi, Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P1 7:39NSHRocco GrimaldiUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–3
- P1 8:08NSHRocco GrimaldiAssists: Erik Haula · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–4
- P1 19:05DETBobby RyanPPAssists: Christian Djoos, Robby Fabbri · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–4
- P2 12:19NSHMikael GranlundAssists: Roman Josi, Dante Fabbro · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–5
- P3 4:29NSHMathieu OlivierAssists: Ben Harpur · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–6
- P3 17:29NSHRocco GrimaldiUnassisted · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–7
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:58DETAnthony Mantha: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 16:37NSHBen Harpur: Interference2 min
- P1 18:44NSHMathieu Olivier: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:07NSHFilip Forsberg: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:52DETDylan Larkin: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:31DETAdam Erne: Interference2 min
- P3 17:58NSHMikael Granlund: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P3 19:16DETBobby Ryan: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rasmussen won the faceoff against Granlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Ryan – Helm – Rasmussen2:18
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Ryan – Mantha – Rasmussen3:29
xG 0.06–0.10 (39%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Gagner – Namestnikov – Zadina7:43
xG 0.13–0.22 (37%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Helm – Glendening – Erne7:14
xG 0.13–0.23 (37%)attempts 10–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDeKeyser – Hronek10:14
xG 0.19–0.10 (66%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Merrill6:20
xG 0.16–0.12 (57%)attempts 8–2goals 0–1
- Merrill – Stecher6:38
xG 0.10–0.19 (35%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestHaula – Cousins – Grimaldi10:18
xG 0.86–0.08 (92%)attempts 12–5goals 4–0
- Jarnkrok – Granlund – Arvidsson11:23
xG 0.67–0.20 (77%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Olivier9:50
xG 0.53–0.14 (80%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Tolvanen10:03
xG 0.04–0.26 (13%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Fabbro15:02
xG 0.84–0.13 (87%)attempts 15–6goals 3–0
- Ekholm – Carrier13:42
xG 0.64–0.31 (67%)attempts 13–9goals 2–0
- Benning – Harpur16:08
xG 0.50–0.29 (64%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).