Fri, Mar 26, 2021·Gila River Arena, Glendale
San Jose Sharks 2, Arizona Coyotes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 04 | 110 | 18 | 222 |
| ARI | 112 | 110 | 36 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:20ARIChristian DvorakAssists: Conor Garland, Christian Fischer · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 1:54SJSTomas HertlSHAssists: Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 18:44ARINick SchmaltzAssists: Ilya Lyubushkin, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Backhand, 0.20 xG1–2
- P3 7:48ARIChristian DvorakGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–3
- P3 9:08ARIDryden HuntAssists: Lawson Crouse, Derick Brassard · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–4
- P3 9:59ARIPhil KesselPPAssists: Clayton Keller, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–5
- P3 12:30SJSPatrick MarleauPPAssists: Mario Ferraro, Timo Meier · Wrist, 0.31 xG2–5
Penalties (6)
- P2 0:39SJSMario Ferraro: Holding2 min
- P2 9:19SJSLogan Couture: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:50ARIJason Demers: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:08SJSRyan Donato: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min · PPG
- P3 10:42ARINick Schmaltz: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 15:03SJSTomas Hertl: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dvorak won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestDonato – Suomela – Leonard7:13
xG 0.20–0.07 (75%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Marleau – Hertl – Meier8:52
xG 0.25–0.40 (38%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Sorensen – Balcers – Gambrell7:55
xG 0.32–0.65 (33%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Couture – Kane – Labanc12:52
xG 0.34–0.81 (29%)attempts 14–14goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Knyzhov14:06
xG 0.66–0.49 (57%)attempts 13–12goals 0–2
- Karlsson – Ferraro2:18
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Simek9:57
xG 0.37–0.94 (28%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestKessel – Larsson – Keller9:42
xG 0.65–0.25 (72%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Hayden – Schmaltz – Caggiula9:01
xG 0.44–0.22 (66%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Brassard – Hunt – Crouse8:15
xG 0.37–0.40 (48%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Dvorak – Fischer – Garland10:05
xG 0.25–0.48 (34%)attempts 5–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Chychrun16:53
xG 1.32–0.48 (74%)attempts 20–12goals 2–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Lyubushkin11:40
xG 0.50–0.39 (56%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Demers – Oesterle11:23
xG 0.44–0.64 (41%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).