Sat, Mar 27, 2021·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New York Rangers 1, Philadelphia Flyers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 18 | 09 | 08 | 125 |
| PHI | 017 | 112 | 18 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:54NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Ryan Strome, Adam Fox · Snap, 0.25 xG1–0
- P2 12:52PHINolan PatrickPPAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Sean Couturier · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–1
- P3 15:33PHISamuel MorinGWGAssists: Nicolas Aube-Kubel, Michael Raffl · Snap, 0.03 xG1–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:29PHITravis Konecny: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 3:12NYRK'Andre Miller: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:48PHIMichael Raffl: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:12NYRChris Kreider: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:55NYRKevin Rooney: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 18:06PHIPhilippe Myers: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:45PHIScott Laughton: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hayes won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Strome – Panarin – Kakko10:36
xG 0.19–0.18 (50%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Blackwell – Lemieux – Rooney7:02
xG 0.36–0.51 (41%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Gauthier – Chytil – Lafrenière6:49
xG 0.11–0.27 (29%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Buchnevich12:02
xG 0.32–0.72 (31%)attempts 9–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren15:09
xG 0.50–0.35 (59%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- Smith – Hajek9:44
xG 0.15–0.25 (37%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Trouba – Miller16:50
xG 0.45–1.03 (30%)attempts 14–23goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Couturier – Konecny9:45
xG 0.49–0.26 (65%)attempts 17–5goals 0–0
- Voracek – Lindblom – Patrick4:25
xG 0.12–0.11 (53%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Giroux – Hayes – Farabee9:57
xG 0.32–0.32 (51%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Laughton – Raffl – Aube-Kubel6:07
xG 0.13–0.14 (48%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – Provorov12:57
xG 0.50–0.29 (63%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Sanheim – Myers12:54
xG 0.65–0.50 (56%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Provorov3:36
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).