Sat, Mar 27, 2021·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Columbus Blue Jackets 1, Detroit Red Wings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 05 | 19 | 08 | 122 |
| DET | 216 | 08 | 110 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:29DETAdam ErneAssists: Filip Hronek, Danny DeKeyser · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 8:58DETRobby FabbriGWGAssists: Dylan Larkin, Filip Zadina · Snap, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 11:43CBJNick FolignoAssists: Alexandre Texier, Boone Jenner · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–2
- P3 4:42DETAnthony ManthaAssists: Dylan Larkin, Patrik Nemeth · Snap, 0.16 xG1–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:37CBJDavid Savard: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:28CBJBoone Jenner: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:12DETRobby Fabbri: Holding2 min
- P3 15:04CBJVladislav Gavrikov: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:20CBJZach Werenski: Cross checking2 min
- P3 15:20DETMichael Rasmussen: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:20DETMichael Rasmussen: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jenner won the faceoff against Namestnikov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Jenner – Texier10:43
xG 0.80–0.37 (68%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Bjorkstrand – Domi – Roslovic2:15
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Atkinson – Bjorkstrand – Domi4:17
xG 0.22–0.32 (41%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Bjorkstrand – Stenlund – Laine4:18
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Del Zotto – Carlsson12:06
xG 0.40–0.52 (43%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Jones – Werenski17:27
xG 0.66–0.87 (43%)attempts 17–12goals 1–2
- Savard – Gavrikov14:49
xG 0.42–0.98 (30%)attempts 10–21goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestLarkin – Fabbri – Zadina13:15
xG 1.08–0.66 (62%)attempts 16–10goals 1–1
- Gagner – Svechnikov – Rasmussen6:31
xG 0.20–0.12 (63%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Ryan – Namestnikov – Mantha8:57
xG 0.47–0.40 (54%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Helm – Glendening – Erne8:46
xG 0.24–0.18 (57%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Merrill16:10
xG 0.91–0.47 (66%)attempts 15–14goals 1–0
- Nemeth – Djoos10:54
xG 0.68–0.37 (65%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- DeKeyser – Hronek15:36
xG 0.71–0.61 (54%)attempts 19–10goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).