Sat, Mar 27, 2021·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Winnipeg Jets 2, Calgary Flames 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 07 | 29 | 08 | 224 |
| CGY | 216 | 07 | 210 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:13CGYJosh LeivoAssists: Sean Monahan · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–1
- P1 19:14CGYMark GiordanoPPAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Elias Lindholm · Slap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 0:34WPGMason AppletonAssists: Andrew Copp · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 6:19WPGLogan StanleyAssists: Kyle Connor, Nate Thompson · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 0:49CGYAndrew MangiapaneGWGAssists: Noah Hanifin, Chris Tanev · Snap, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 7:48CGYSam BennettAssists: Joakim Nordstrom, Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 17:45WPGDylan DeMelo: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 2:12WPGNeal Pionk: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:03CGYAndrew Mangiapane: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:36CGYMilan Lucic: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- Thompson – Lewis – Perreault5:36
xG 0.05–0.13 (28%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Ehlers – Connor – Dubois11:29
xG 0.28–0.40 (41%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Lowry – Copp – Appleton11:30
xG 0.39–0.53 (43%)attempts 8–14goals 1–1
- Wheeler – Stastny – Scheifele13:42
xG 0.22–1.27 (15%)attempts 5–17goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- DeMelo – Stanley11:07
xG 0.09–0.24 (27%)attempts 7–11goals 1–1
- Poolman – Morrissey16:13
xG 0.40–0.71 (36%)attempts 9–18goals 1–1
- Forbort – Pionk16:45
xG 0.66–1.29 (34%)attempts 11–19goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestLindholm – Mangiapane – Tkachuk10:15
xG 0.39–0.14 (74%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Nordstrom – Leivo – Ryan3:52
xG 0.22–0.03 (88%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Backlund – Nordstrom – Bennett4:43
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Lucic – Leivo – Ryan3:10
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStone – Nesterov10:12
xG 1.04–0.08 (93%)attempts 18–5goals 1–0
- Giordano – Andersson16:46
xG 1.06–0.55 (66%)attempts 17–11goals 2–0
- Tanev – Hanifin17:26
xG 0.22–0.39 (36%)attempts 9–10goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).