Sat, Mar 27, 2021·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Florida Panthers 4, Dallas Stars 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 29 | 111 | 04 | 14 | 428 |
| DAL | 28 | 08 | 112 | 06 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:24FLACarter VerhaegheAssists: Noel Acciari · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 8:01DALDenis GurianovAssists: Jamie Benn, Joel Hanley · Snap, 0.22 xG1–1
- P1 9:57DALJohn KlingbergAssists: Esa Lindell, Radek Faksa · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P1 17:00FLACarter VerhaeghePPAssists: Noel Acciari, Owen Tippett · Backhand, 0.25 xG2–2
- P2 17:40FLACarter VerhaegheSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 3:00DALJoel L'EsperanceAssists: Joel Hanley, Andrej Sekera · Tip-in, 0.05 xG3–3
- OT 4:50FLAAaron EkbladGWGAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Carter Verhaeghe · Backhand, 0.23 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 15:18DALAndrew Cogliano: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 17:12DALDenis Gurianov: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:20DALRadek Faksa: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:16FLAGustav Forsling: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:43FLABrett Connolly: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:58FLARiley Stillman: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pavelski won the faceoff against Acciari
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestLammikko – Vatrano – Tippett4:49
xG 0.33–0.02 (96%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Duclair – Verhaeghe – Acciari12:22
xG 0.61–0.39 (61%)attempts 16–13goals 1–0
- Connolly – Huberdeau – Wennberg8:59
xG 0.08–0.42 (16%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkblad – Forsling2:37
xG 0.17–0.01 (96%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Weegar – Ekblad14:28
xG 0.42–0.29 (59%)attempts 10–12goals 1–1
- Nutivaara – Stillman2:47
xG 0.01–0.04 (21%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Dickinson – Robertson11:12
xG 0.76–0.36 (68%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
- Comeau – Cogliano – Gardner4:39
xG 0.29–0.08 (78%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Comeau – Cogliano – Faksa7:19
xG 0.27–0.09 (76%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Benn – Dowling – Gurianov5:51
xG 0.28–0.19 (60%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Hanley7:36
xG 0.50–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 2–0
- Klingberg – Lindell16:00
xG 0.65–0.22 (75%)attempts 17–13goals 1–0
- Oleksiak – Heiskanen14:07
xG 0.16–0.43 (28%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).