Sun, Mar 28, 2021·Capital One Arena, Washington
New York Rangers 4, Washington Capitals 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 06 | 05 | 49 | 420 |
| WSH | 011 | 38 | 23 | 522 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:43WSHTom WilsonAssists: Jakub Vrana · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 12:29WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: T.J. Oshie, Dmitry Orlov · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
- P2 15:07WSHTom WilsonAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, T.J. Oshie · Backhand, 0.24 xG0–3
- P3 5:10WSHEvgeny KuznetsovAssists: Carl Hagelin, Garnet Hathaway · Snap, 0.10 xG0–4
- P3 6:42NYRColin BlackwellAssists: Adam Fox · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–4
- P3 9:41NYRColin BlackwellAssists: Kevin Rooney, Phillip Di Giuseppe · Snap, 0.31 xG2–4
- P3 11:46WSHT.J. OshieGWGAssists: Justin Schultz, Dmitry Orlov · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–5
- P3 12:18NYRAlexis LafrenièreAssists: Julien Gauthier, Kevin Rooney · Snap, 0.21 xG3–5
- P3 16:08NYRChris KreiderPPAssists: Ryan Strome, Adam Fox · Tip-in, 0.09 xG4–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 17:15NYRColin Blackwell: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:25NYRBrendan Smith: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:11WSHNic Dowd: Holding2 min
- P2 12:51WSHTom Wilson: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:14WSHCarl Hagelin: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:50NYRLibor Hajek: Interference2 min
- P3 15:57WSHTom Wilson: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestBuchnevich – Chytil – Kakko2:18
xG 0.33–0.05 (87%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Gauthier – Chytil – Lafrenière4:56
xG 0.27–0.22 (54%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Blackwell – Di Giuseppe – Rooney6:35
xG 0.39–0.38 (51%)attempts 5–3goals 2–1
- Strome – Panarin – Kakko11:04
xG 0.21–0.27 (44%)attempts 14–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Miller14:26
xG 0.87–0.69 (56%)attempts 16–10goals 1–1
- Smith – Hajek11:03
xG 0.63–0.50 (56%)attempts 7–12goals 1–1
- Fox – Lindgren14:51
xG 0.30–0.46 (40%)attempts 14–6goals 1–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestBackstrom – Wilson – Vrana2:07
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Hagelin – Dowd – Hathaway11:31
xG 0.60–0.37 (62%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Kuznetsov4:02
xG 0.17–0.16 (52%)attempts 3–5goals 2–0
- Oshie – Panik – Vrana4:26
xG 0.41–0.43 (49%)attempts 5–6goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Dillon15:10
xG 1.07–0.39 (73%)attempts 17–10goals 1–1
- Schultz – Orlov14:51
xG 0.76–1.00 (43%)attempts 9–17goals 3–2
- Chara – Jensen12:23
xG 0.08–0.38 (17%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).