Sun, Mar 28, 2021·United Center, Chicago
Nashville Predators 3, Chicago Blackhawks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 28 | 012 | 111 | 331 |
| CHI | 08 | 011 | 210 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:43NSHViktor ArvidssonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 18:30NSHCalle JarnkrokAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Luke Kunin · Deflected, 0.11 xG2–0
- P3 7:35CHIAlex DeBrincatAssists: Patrick Kane, Pius Suter · Slap, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 9:25CHIAlex DeBrincatAssists: Pius Suter · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–2
- P3 13:27NSHRoman JosiGWGAssists: Eeli Tolvanen, Viktor Arvidsson · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:35NSHYakov Trenin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 6:35CHIRyan Carpenter: Boarding2 min
- P1 14:36NSHYakov Trenin: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:12CHINikita Zadorov: Interference2 min
- P2 13:15NSHRyan Johansen: Cross checking2 min
- P3 4:03NSHViktor Arvidsson: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sissons won the faceoff against Suter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJarnkrok – Granlund – Kunin9:58
xG 0.70–0.41 (63%)attempts 13–11goals 1–1
- Johansen – Arvidsson – Tolvanen10:18
xG 0.58–0.51 (53%)attempts 10–7goals 2–1
- Sissons – Trenin – Olivier10:45
xG 0.24–0.19 (55%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Haula – Cousins – Grimaldi8:20
xG 0.18–0.14 (56%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBenning – Harpur11:19
xG 1.05–0.36 (75%)attempts 17–6goals 0–1
- Ekholm – Carrier13:56
xG 0.39–0.24 (62%)attempts 11–8goals 2–0
- Josi – Fabbro14:35
xG 0.41–0.82 (33%)attempts 14–18goals 0–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKane – DeBrincat – Suter4:06
xG 0.46–0.24 (66%)attempts 7–3goals 2–0
- Kubalik – Hagel – Kampf3:51
xG 0.21–0.01 (97%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Kane – DeBrincat2:16
xG 0.18–0.11 (62%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Carpenter – Highmore – Kampf2:25
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurphy – Zadorov15:54
xG 0.57–0.39 (59%)attempts 20–10goals 0–1
- Keith – Beaudin3:40
xG 0.23–0.17 (58%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Keith – Boqvist14:30
xG 0.33–0.53 (39%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).