Mon, Mar 29, 2021·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Buffalo Sabres 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 08 | 012 | 315 | 11 | 436 |
| BUF | 113 | 29 | 010 | 00 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:41BUFHenri JokiharjuAssists: Curtis Lazar, Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 2:10BUFCody EakinAssists: Tobias Rieder, Riley Sheahan · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 12:43BUFBrandon MontourAssists: Tage Thompson, Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–3
- P3 1:50PHIKevin HayesAssists: Travis Sanheim · Slap, 0.19 xG1–3
- P3 10:51PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Sean Couturier, Jakub Voracek · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–3
- P3 18:31PHISean CouturierAssists: Ivan Provorov, Claude Giroux · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–3
- OT 0:42PHIIvan ProvorovGWGAssists: Travis Konecny · Backhand, 0.20 xG4–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 3:56PHINicolas Aube-Kubel: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:50PHIScott Laughton: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 8:37BUFBrandon Montour: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:16BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Laughton won the faceoff against Eakin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Voracek – Couturier5:57
xG 0.30–0.10 (75%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Hayes – Konecny3:36
xG 0.24–0.06 (81%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Couturier – Konecny6:21
xG 0.22–0.09 (72%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Voracek – Lindblom – Patrick2:48
xG 0.01–0.01 (65%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – Myers15:16
xG 0.49–0.28 (64%)attempts 15–13goals 1–1
- Provorov – Myers2:05
xG 0.10–0.01 (89%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Provorov3:46
xG 0.02–0.05 (35%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestHall – Thompson – Mittelstadt12:32
xG 0.60–0.40 (60%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
- Eakin – Sheahan – Rieder6:01
xG 0.14–0.04 (77%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
- Reinhart – Olofsson – Cozens2:16
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Lazar – Reinhart – Olofsson2:00
xG 0.06–0.04 (58%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJokiharju – Dahlin13:00
xG 0.68–0.34 (67%)attempts 14–6goals 1–1
- Miller – Montour15:48
xG 0.35–0.32 (52%)attempts 16–14goals 1–0
- Irwin – Ristolainen18:14
xG 0.13–0.58 (19%)attempts 10–26goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).