Sat, Feb 6, 2021·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Arizona Coyotes 3, St. Louis Blues 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 19 | 13 | 17 | 319 |
| STL | 111 | 06 | 08 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:50ARIJakob ChychrunAssists: Clayton Keller, Conor Garland · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 4:05STLRobert ThomasAssists: Colton Parayko, Torey Krug · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 10:44ARIClayton KellerPPGWGAssists: Phil Kessel, Jordan Oesterle · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 19:34ARIJakob ChychrunENAssists: Conor Garland · Snap, 0.71 xG3–1
Penalties (13)
- P1 9:36ARINick Schmaltz: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:03STLSammy Blais: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:53STLMike Hoffman: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:32ARIJason Demers: Holding2 min
- P2 8:57STLTorey Krug: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:39STLBrayden Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:39ARIJohan Larsson: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:35ARIChristian Dvorak: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:14STLCarl Gunnarsson: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:13ARINiklas Hjalmarsson: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:24STLDavid Perron: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:04STLJaden Schwartz: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 19:34STLDavid Perron: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schenn won the faceoff against Dvorak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestLarsson – Chaput – Hayden5:05
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Brassard – Kessel – Dvorak4:10
xG 0.08–0.08 (51%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Pitlick – Dvorak – Caggiula3:05
xG 0.03–0.21 (14%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Schmaltz – Garland – Keller10:00
xG 0.20–0.48 (29%)attempts 6–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestOesterle – Chychrun2:26
xG 0.13–0.01 (94%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Hjalmarsson12:33
xG 0.26–0.20 (56%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Chychrun – Lyubushkin10:21
xG 0.16–0.16 (50%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSundqvist – Barbashev – Thomas2:55
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
- Schenn – Schwartz – Kyrou10:13
xG 0.48–0.36 (57%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- MacEachern – Barbashev – Blais2:00
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Schwartz – Sundqvist – Kyrou2:01
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Parayko – Dunn9:31
xG 0.24–0.20 (54%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Faulk – Walman2:03
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Faulk – Krug10:35
xG 0.15–0.25 (37%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).