Mon, Mar 29, 2021·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Edmonton Oilers 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 16 | 09 | 17 | 11 | 323 |
| TOR | 213 | 07 | 010 | 01 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:15EDMJosh ArchibaldAssists: Kris Russell, Jujhar Khaira · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 7:59TORMitch MarnerAssists: Zach Hyman, Justin Holl · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 11:08TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Mitch Marner, Justin Holl · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 1:20EDMKyle TurrisAssists: Adam Larsson, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Deflected, 0.07 xG2–2
- OT 0:17EDMDarnell NurseGWGAssists: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
Penalties (2)
- P2 12:30EDMGaetan Haas: Holding2 min
- P3 2:45TORWayne Simmonds: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestArchibald – Shore – Khaira10:01
xG 0.37–0.07 (84%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Turris – Nugent-Hopkins – Yamamoto11:39
xG 0.56–0.50 (53%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
- Ennis – Kassian – Haas7:18
xG 0.05–0.16 (23%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Draisaitl – McDavid – Puljujarvi15:58
xG 0.36–1.53 (19%)attempts 12–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Lagesson10:23
xG 0.42–0.22 (65%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Larsson – Nurse3:13
xG 0.15–0.01 (96%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Russell – Bear16:10
xG 0.30–0.34 (47%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Marner – Matthews16:06
xG 0.99–0.35 (74%)attempts 11–13goals 2–0
- Tavares – Galchenyuk – Nylander10:58
xG 0.77–0.38 (67%)attempts 19–8goals 0–0
- Thornton – Spezza – Kerfoot8:03
xG 0.15–0.20 (44%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Simmonds – Engvall – Mikheyev6:29
xG 0.22–0.30 (42%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Holl18:36
xG 1.62–0.62 (72%)attempts 23–14goals 1–0
- Bogosian – Dermott13:01
xG 0.36–0.14 (72%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Brodie – Rielly17:24
xG 0.66–0.78 (46%)attempts 14–15goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).