Mon, Mar 29, 2021·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Winnipeg Jets 5, Calgary Flames 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 211 | 212 | 16 | 529 |
| CGY | 112 | 013 | 05 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:24CGYElias LindholmPPAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P1 16:19WPGNate ThompsonAssists: Dylan DeMelo, Trevor Lewis · Deflected, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 18:13WPGMark ScheifeleGWGAssists: Kyle Connor, Nikolaj Ehlers · Slap, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 3:31WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Kyle Connor · Slap, 0.40 xG3–1
- P2 14:31WPGAndrew CoppAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Mark Scheifele · Tip-in, 0.08 xG4–1
- P3 1:04WPGPierre-Luc DuboisAssists: Blake Wheeler, Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:33WPGAndrew Copp: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 2:52CGYNoah Hanifin: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:42WPGNeal Pionk: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:14WPGMathieu Perreault: Boarding2 min
- P2 18:49WPGDylan DeMelo: Interference2 min
- P3 10:31CGYMatthew Tkachuk: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Stastny – Dubois10:25
xG 0.48–0.20 (71%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Lowry – Copp – Appleton10:02
xG 0.14–0.14 (50%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Ehlers – Connor11:47
xG 0.89–0.92 (49%)attempts 12–14goals 2–0
- Thompson – Lewis – Perreault7:10
xG 0.15–0.21 (41%)attempts 2–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Stanley13:43
xG 0.59–0.39 (60%)attempts 9–12goals 2–0
- Forbort – Pionk12:45
xG 0.22–0.38 (37%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Poolman – Morrissey16:47
xG 0.33–0.86 (28%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Ritchie – Monahan10:17
xG 0.72–0.10 (87%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Lucic – Leivo – Ryan7:49
xG 0.23–0.08 (73%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Mangiapane – Tkachuk7:50
xG 0.36–0.35 (51%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Leivo – Lindholm – Tkachuk2:36
xG 0.02–0.01 (60%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Andersson2:31
xG 0.18–0.06 (74%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Tanev – Hanifin13:01
xG 0.17–0.22 (43%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
- Giordano – Stone2:28
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).