Wed, Mar 31, 2021·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Philadelphia Flyers 1, Buffalo Sabres 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 07 | 114 | 011 | 132 |
| BUF | 210 | 28 | 29 | 627 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:32BUFSam ReinhartAssists: Kyle Okposo, Rasmus Ristolainen · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 11:59BUFCurtis LazarGWGAssists: Riley Sheahan · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–2
- P2 3:50PHIIvan ProvorovAssists: Sean Couturier, Jakub Voracek · Slap, 0.01 xG1–2
- P2 9:42BUFSteven FogartyAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Jacob Bryson · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–3
- P2 15:39BUFCasey MittelstadtAssists: Steven Fogarty, Jacob Bryson · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–4
- P3 14:53BUFBrandon MontourENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.50 xG1–5
- P3 15:30BUFBrandon MontourSHAssists: Kyle Okposo · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–6
Penalties (3)
- P2 0:54BUFTage Thompson: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:51BUFHenri Jokiharju: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 13:38BUFTage Thompson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lazar won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestLaughton – Raffl – Aube-Kubel4:09
xG 0.64–0.01 (98%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Hayes – Konecny11:07
xG 0.79–0.53 (60%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
- Twarynski – Bunnaman – Farabee3:58
xG 0.10–0.02 (85%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Laughton – Raffl – Farabee2:09
xG 0.06–0.01 (82%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – Sanheim2:49
xG 0.37–0.01 (98%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Sanheim – Myers14:11
xG 0.60–0.41 (59%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Gustafsson – Myers2:42
xG 0.09–0.01 (89%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestEakin – Rieder – Fogarty6:52
xG 0.25–0.06 (80%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Sheahan – Skinner – Lazar5:15
xG 0.23–0.10 (70%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
- Okposo – Reinhart – Olofsson7:19
xG 0.26–0.19 (57%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Hall – Thompson – Mittelstadt10:06
xG 0.14–0.98 (12%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRistolainen – Bryson17:47
xG 1.41–0.56 (71%)attempts 15–16goals 4–0
- Miller – Dahlin2:26
xG 0.01–0.04 (22%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Miller – Montour14:54
xG 0.53–1.02 (34%)attempts 13–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).