Sat, Mar 27, 2021·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
New York Islanders 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 09 | 113 | 210 | 332 |
| PIT | 24 | 314 | 13 | 621 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:48PITFrederick GaudreauAssists: Sam Lafferty, Colton Sceviour · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 10:07PITEvan RodriguesAssists: Jared McCann, Cody Ceci · Snap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 4:26PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Jake Guentzel, Kris Letang · Backhand, 0.17 xG0–3
- P2 6:18PITBryan RustPPGWGAssists: Sidney Crosby, Jared McCann · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–4
- P2 8:21PITBryan RustAssists: Kris Letang, Jake Guentzel · Backhand, 0.28 xG0–5
- P2 10:47NYIMathew BarzalAssists: Scott Mayfield · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–5
- P3 5:23NYIAnthony BeauvillierAssists: Mathew Barzal, Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–5
- P3 17:33NYIJordan EberleAssists: Brock Nelson, Josh Bailey · Snap, 0.11 xG3–5
- P3 19:18PITBryan RustENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.72 xG3–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:17NYIOliver Wahlstrom: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 15:23PITTristan Jarry: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:11PITSam Lafferty: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:09NYINick Leddy: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 5:30NYIScott Mayfield: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 13:47PITFrederick Gaudreau: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:47NYIOliver Wahlstrom: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:12PITBryan Rust: Elbowing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestKomarov – Eberle – Barzal9:45
xG 0.75–0.04 (94%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas6:29
xG 0.20–0.06 (76%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Pageau – Beauvillier – Wahlstrom9:58
xG 0.11–0.24 (32%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Bailey – Nelson – Bellows9:36
xG 0.08–0.75 (9%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHickey – Mayfield16:36
xG 0.95–0.09 (91%)attempts 11–6goals 2–0
- Pelech – Pulock12:26
xG 0.38–0.35 (52%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Greene – Leddy14:38
xG 0.35–0.86 (29%)attempts 8–17goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMcCann – Rodrigues – Aston-Reese10:33
xG 0.71–0.43 (62%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Sceviour – Gaudreau – Lafferty12:23
xG 0.41–0.40 (51%)attempts 12–4goals 1–1
- Angello – O'Connor – Zohorna6:06
xG 0.06–0.04 (57%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel13:17
xG 0.40–0.53 (43%)attempts 4–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Dumoulin14:40
xG 0.89–0.32 (73%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Matheson – Ceci12:48
xG 0.20–0.12 (62%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Pettersson – Marino14:06
xG 0.20–0.92 (18%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).