Mon, Feb 8, 2021·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Arizona Coyotes 4, St. Louis Blues 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 010 | 29 | 15 | 02 | 2 | 426 |
| STL | 111 | 117 | 111 | 04 | 1 | 343 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:29STLRyan O'ReillyPPAssists: David Perron, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.29 xG0–1
- P2 1:48ARIConor GarlandAssists: Clayton Keller, Nick Schmaltz · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 8:11STLDavid PerronAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 11:36ARIChristian DvorakPPAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Jakob Chychrun · Wrist, 0.36 xG2–2
- P3 3:44STLRyan O'ReillyAssists: Mackenzie MacEachern · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 19:59ARIClayton KellerPPAssists: Christian Dvorak, Jakob Chychrun · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. STL David Perron scored
- 2. ARI Nick Schmaltz stopped
- 3. STL Brayden Schenn stopped
- 4. ARI Conor Garland scored
- 5. STL Ryan O'Reilly stopped
- 6. ARI Christian Dvorak scored
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:41STLKyle Clifford: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:41ARIJohn Hayden: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:01ARIMichael Chaput: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 13:49STLJustin Faulk: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:40ARIJason Demers: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:25STLVince Dunn: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:51ARIJakob Chychrun: Interference2 min
- P3 9:58STLZachary Sanford: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:35ARIClayton Keller: Holding2 min
- P3 18:31STLJaden Schwartz: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:11STLJustin Faulk: Holding2 min
- P3 19:11ARIConor Garland: Embellishment2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Dvorak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestSchmaltz – Garland – Keller8:18
xG 0.67–0.32 (68%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Brassard – Kessel – Dvorak3:07
xG 0.06–0.03 (65%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Larsson – Chaput – Hayden5:18
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Brassard – Kessel – Hayton6:28
xG 0.09–0.17 (35%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Hjalmarsson13:34
xG 0.84–0.15 (85%)attempts 19–5goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Chychrun2:21
xG 0.12–0.00 (97%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Demers – Oesterle11:15
xG 0.52–0.54 (49%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Schwartz – Kyrou12:26
xG 1.00–0.37 (73%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Hoffman – Sundqvist – Sanford8:27
xG 0.26–0.15 (65%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Perron – O'Reilly – Barbashev9:58
xG 0.27–0.20 (58%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Clifford – MacEachern – de la Rose4:42
xG 0.30–0.38 (45%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Krug16:02
xG 1.36–0.74 (65%)attempts 22–12goals 2–0
- Bortuzzo – Mikkola6:36
xG 0.06–0.03 (69%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Parayko – Dunn18:49
xG 0.30–0.57 (35%)attempts 14–23goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).